Population Projections, Australia

Latest release

Population projections (based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration) for Australia, states and territories and capital cities

Reference period
2022 (base) - 2071

Key statistics

  • Australia's population in 2022 (26 million) is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071.
  • The current ten year average annual growth rate (1.4%) is projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%.
  • The median age (38.5 years) is projected to increase to between 43.8 and 47.6 years.

These projections are not predictions or forecasts. They illustrate what would happen to Australia's population if assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2022 and 2071. 

Users should assess the available assumptions and choose the combination that best suits their needs. 

Assumptions

Introduction

The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected population for the following year. The assumptions are then applied to this new (projected) population to obtain a projected population for the next year. This process is repeated until the end of the projection period is reached.

Span of projections

From a base of 30 June 2022, the projections span the period 30 June 2023 to 30 June 2071 for Australia, states, territories, capital cities and rest of state.

Base population

The base population is the preliminary estimated resident population at 30 June 2022, which takes into account the 2021 Census of Population and Housing.

Summary

Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with experts at the national and state/territory level. They do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.

As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.
 

Summary of assumptions
Summary of assumptions The diagram illustrates how using the current long-term trends in fertility, mortality and migration, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. This presents a range of possible future outcomes for Australia's population.

The table below shows how recent demographic trends (an average of the last three years) relate to the proposed assumptions. The projections will show a smooth transition from the most recently observed data to the long-range assumption. This 'phase-in' period is different for each component assumption and so the table also shows the year that each assumption will be phased in by.

 Recent observed averageLow assumptionMedium assumptionHigh AssumptionPhased in by
Total fertility rate(a)1.641.451.601.752026-27
Male life expectancy at birth(a)81.283.983.988.42070-71
Female life expectancy at birth(a)85.386.886.891.12070-71
Net overseas migration(a)103,300175,000225,000275,0002031-32
Net interstate migration. .small flowsmedium flowslarge flows2026-27

. . not applicable
a. Recent observed average is for calendar years 2020-2022.
 

Projection series

The above assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a range, although not the full range, of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to as series high, medium and low.

For some states, the high to low series do not depict the highest or lowest population outcomes. Where applicable, other series have been included in commentary.

The inclusion of a zero net overseas migration assumption increases the total number of available projections to 72 series. These extra series (series 55 to 72) do not feature in the commentary and analysis but are included in the ABS Data Explorer datasets attached to this publication.

Future uncertainty, along with the subjective nature of assessing current trends, means that using a range of possible outcomes rather than a single projection series give a more realistic view of the possible future size, distribution and age structure of Australia's population.

Different series, constructed from varying combinations of assumptions, are appropriate for different time horizons (shorter or longer term), the geographic region(s) considered, and any volatility in the components. Historically, mortality and fertility have been consistent with slow-moving trends in the data. The projections reflect this. Observed levels of overseas and interstate migration have been far more volatile. This volatility can be expected to continue due to future government policies and decision making, and economic, social and other influences in Australia and overseas.

Fertility

Summary

Future trends in fertility are an important determinant of Australia's future population size, structure and growth. To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions of age-specific fertility rates and the sex ratio at birth are required for each year of the projection period.

Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (a TFR of 1.75 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.6) and lower fertility (1.45). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is assumed to continue to 2027, but at a slower rate than seen historically, and remain constant thereafter. For all years, the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.

Trends in the total fertility rate

In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s, before levelling out at around 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966-1971. The TFR was last at replacement level (2.1) in 1975, and continued to fall thereafter. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR reached a low of 1.7 babies per woman in 2001, increased again to 2.0, before declining to 1.8 in 2016 and to 1.6 in 2022.

Assumed total fertility rates

The three assumptions for Australia's future fertility levels are made with regard to recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the past 20 years.

The higher fertility scenario assumes that Australia's TFR will reach 1.75 babies per woman by 2027 and remain constant thereafter. This reflects levels of fertility recorded since 1977 of between 1.7 and 2.0 babies per woman, acknowledging the possibility that the TFR could increase more, especially in the short-term.

The medium scenario assumes a continuation of the current TFR, with the TFR to remain steady at 1.6 to 2027 and remaining constant thereafter.

Under the lower fertility assumption the TFR declines to 1.45 babies per woman by 2027 and remaining constant thereafter. Fertility rates have reached low levels in many European countries, and higher-income Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

  1. Babies per 1,000 women.
  2. Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag.
     

State/territory and capital city/rest of state observed fertility

The table below shows the TFRs for all states and territories and Australia from 2012 to 2022. Some states have consistently been higher or lower than the national rate, while others have fluctuated over the past 20 years. In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia, and the ACT have been lower than rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs for the remaining states and territories, particularly the Northern Territory, have been higher.

Year ending 31 DecemberNSWVic.QldSAWATas.NTACTAust.
20121.931.882.001.901.922.032.161.781.95
20131.941.761.941.851.892.002.061.771.87
20141.721.721.911.851.911.962.041.741.86
20151.861.651.851.761.871.882.011.701.88
20161.741.801.821.761.881.961.941.551.79
20171.711.731.781.681.821.781.891.811.74
20181.871.611.771.661.751.681.991.511.67
20191.711.551.741.671.741.671.791.511.67
20201.651.461.661.561.671.631.811.431.59
20211.771.531.791.661.761.641.831.451.70
20221.711.511.711.621.621.491.731.411.63
  1. Source Births, Australia.  

The ratio of each state and territories' average TFR for the ten years 2013-2022 to that of Australia is calculated, then applied to assumed future Australian TFRs. These ratios remain constant throughout the projection period.

Assumed TFRs for the capital cities and state balances are derived by applying the average ratio (for 2013-2022) of the region to its respective state/territory to that state/territory's assumed TFR. Fertility rates for Australian capital cities are typically lower than rates for their respective states and territories, while rates for state balances are higher.

 Total fertility rate(a)(b)Assumed fertility ratios(c)
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
rateraterate%%%
New South Wales1.671.981.7794.2111.6101.9
Victoria1.581.941.6396.4118.594.1
Queensland1.711.901.8095.0105.5103.4
South Australia1.641.981.7196.1116.098.1
Western Australia1.742.081.7997.1115.9103.1
Tasmania1.671.831.7794.5103.8101.5
Northern Territory1.811.911.9195.2100.2109.6
Australian Capital Territory. .. .1.59. .. .91.7
Australia(d). .. .1.75. .. .100.0

        . .    not applicable 

  1. Babies per woman.
  2. Average of 2013-2022 TFRs.
  3. Assumed fertility ratios show the relationship of the average TFR for 2013-2022 for each state/territory to Australia; capital city to state/territory; and rest of state/territory to state/territory.
  4. d. Includes Other Territories.
 Higher assumptionMedium assumptionLower assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
rateraterateraterateraterateraterate
New South Wales

1.68

1.99

1.78

1.54

1.82

1.63

1.39

1.65

1.48

Victoria

1.59

1.95

1.65

1.45

1.78

1.51

1.32

1.62

1.37

Queensland

1.72

1.91

1.81

1.57

1.75

1.66

1.43

1.58

1.50

South Australia

1.65

1.99

1.72

1.51

1.82

1.57

1.37

1.65

1.42

Western Australia

1.75

2.09

1.81

1.60

1.91

1.65

1.45

1.73

1.50

Tasmania

1.68

1.84

1.78

1.53

1.69

1.62

1.39

1.53

1.47

Northern Territory

1.82

1.92

1.92

1.67

1.76

1.75

1.51

1.59

1.59

Australian Capital Territory

. .

. .

1.61

. .

. .

1.47

. .

. .

1.33

Australia(b)

. .

. .

1.75

. .

. .

1.60

. .

. .

1.45

        . .     not applicable

  1. Babies per woman.
  2. Includes Other Territories


 

Age-specific fertility rates

Population projections require assumptions about future age-specific fertility rates, which are derived from assumed TFRs and age distributions of fertility. These rates are applied to the projected female population in each year of the projection period in order to determine future numbers of births, and therefore the size of future projected populations. 

Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst remaining stable among women aged 30 years and over, representing a continuing shift in fertility towards older ages. 

The projected age distribution of mothers is based on half the average rate of change in the age-specific fertility rates during the period 2017-2022. The historical rate of change is assumed to slow down due to limits on child-bearing ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios until 2027, after which the age pattern of fertility remains constant.

Linear interpolation is used to obtain TFRs for each year 2023 to 2026 for all three scenarios, using the known TFR for 2022 and assumed TFR for 2027. To create assumed age-specific fertility rates, the assumed distribution of age of mothers is then applied to the assumed TFR for the corresponding projection year.

  1. Babies per 1,000 woman.
     

Sex ratio at birth

Projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth (the ratio of male to female births), so that total projected births can be split into male and female births.

Historically, the sex ratio fluctuates between 105 to 106 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105.5 male births per 100 female births has been used for the duration of the projection period.

Mortality

Data on age-specific death rates and assumed age-specific mortality rates was added on 7 December 2023.

Summary

For the population projections in this issue, two assumptions on future life expectancy at birth have been made. Only two assumptions have been made because life expectancy has consistently shown an improving trend since Australian records began.

The higher life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will continue to improve at the average rate observed in 2012–2016. The medium life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will also improve, but at a declining rate.

Life tables for 2015-2017 were not created in time to be included in the mortality assumption process.

Trends in life expectancy

Australian life expectancy at birth has improved steadily for both men and women. Since the early 1920s, life expectancy at birth for both males and females has increased by about 21 years. Since the 1980s, faster increases for males has narrowed the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 7 to 4 years. Recent years has seen the improvement in life expectancy declining for both males and females, with both males and females recording an improvement of 0.06 years in 2014-2016.

Assumed life expectancy at birth

The higher life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will continuously increase at the average growth of 2012-2016. The yearly increase of life expectancy of birth for the higher assumption is about 0.14 for males and 0.09 for females. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth reaches 87.68 years in 2066 and female life expectancy at birth reaches 89.16 years. 

The medium life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will increase at a slightly lower rate than the higher assumption for the first year, and then gradually slow. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth would reach 83.00 years and female life expectancy at birth would reach 86.00 years in 2066.

 MalesFemalesDifference
yearsyearsyears
Declining improvement in life expectancy (Medium assumption)   
2025-26

81.97

85.77

3.80

2030-31

82.39

86.01

3.62

2035-36

82.63

86.15

3.52

2040-41

82.81

86.25

3.44

2070-71

83.86

86.85

2.99

Constant improvement in life expectancy (Higher assumption)   
2025-26

81.92

85.88

3.96

2030-31

82.64

86.46

3.82

2035-36

83.35

87.03

3.68

2040-41

84.07

87.61

3.54

2070-71

88.37

91.07

2.70

 

Age-specific death rates

The inputs of the mortality component of population projections are 'survivorship ratios' obtained from assumed future life tables. Life tables for each year in the projection period (i.e. 2022–2071) are calculated in two steps: (1) life expectancy at birth for each projection year is determined; and (2) a life table is generated which gives the desired life expectancy at birth and allows for a shift in the age curve of mortality over time.

The shifting age curve of mortality over time should ideally represent current trends in age-sex differences continued into the future. To achieve this, rates of change indicative of recent trends for each age-sex group are incorporated in the production of the assumed life tables. Determining assumed rates of change is achieved by observing historical patterns in age-specific death rates.

Between 2011 and 2021, males aged 5–9, males aged 95–100+ and females aged 5–19 had the largest relative declines in age-specific death rates. The groups with the least improvement in death rates were males aged 20–59, males aged over 95, females aged 40–64 and females aged over 90. In general, greater change over time has been observed for males compared to females.

Assumed age-specific mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to decrease for all age groups for both males and females over the projection period. Very little change is assumed for ages over 90. For corresponding ages, mortality rates for females are always assumed to be lower than for males.

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state mortality

Assumptions of life expectancy at birth by state/territory are derived from the Australian assumptions by applying a ten year average of the ratio of the state or territory life expectancy to the Australian life expectancy. A similar process is used to create the capital city/rest of state assumptions, by using the ratio of capital city/rest of state life expectancy to the state life expectancy for the most recent life table period 2014–2016. These ratios are calculated separately for males and females and remain constant through the projection period.

 Life expectancy at birth 2020-2022Male mortality ratiosFemale mortality ratios
MalesFemalesCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
YearsYears%%%%%%
New South Wales

81.3

85.3

101.2

95.4

100.1

101.1

96.5

100.1

Victoria

81.6

85.5

101.1

95.9

100.5

101.0

96.8

100.3

Queensland

80.7

85.0

101.0

96.3

99.4

100.8

97.0

99.6

South Australia

81.0

85.1

101.1

96.5

99.7

101.1

96.7

99.8

Western Australia

81.7

85.8

101.2

96.0

100.7

101.0

96.7

100.7

Tasmania

80.3

84.3

101.0

96.8

98.9

101.1

96.4

98.9

Northern Territory

76.2

80.7

100.7

92.1

93.8

101.1

94.3

94.7

Australian Capital Territory

82.2

86.0

. .

. .

101.2

. .

. .

100.9

Australia

81.2

85.3

. .

. .

100.0

. .

. .

100.0

       . .     not applicable

  1. Mortality ratios based on the relationships of 2006–2016 life expectancies at birth between each state/territory and Australia, and 2014–2016 life expectancies at birth between each capital city and its state/territory, and between each rest of state/territory and its state/territory.

Net overseas migration

Summary

Three assumptions have been made about Australia's future levels of net overseas migration (NOM):

  • 275,000 people per year (higher),
  • 225,000 people per year (medium); and
  • 175,000 people per year (lower).
     

In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the effect of overseas migration on Australia's future population.

The ABS had regard to Treasury Budget and 2023 Intergenerational Report Net Overseas Migration figures. The NOM assumption reflects established trends observed in the period 2010-2019. All NOM assumptions are held constant from 2031-32 onwards.

Historical data

Annual levels of NOM have fluctuated considerably in Australia over the past 20 years. For financial years, the level has been as low as -85,000 in 2020-21, a result of the international border closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, to a high of 300,000 in 2008-09.


 

New South Wales was the largest gainer of NOM from 2010 to 2019, with Victoria being the second largest gainer. NOM for Queensland and Western Australia declined after those states recorded strong NOM gains at the start of the period. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have seen fluctuations in their NOM between 2010 and 2019, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory recording strong gains in 2017.

Year ending 30 JuneNSW ('000)Vic. ('000)Qld ('000)SA ('000)WA ('000)Tas. ('000)NT ('000)ACT ('000)Aust. ('000)
201057.253.735.814.528.91.71.23.1196.1
201151.744.634.69.236.41.01.11.7180.4
201257.256.246.512.450.81.53.34.0231.9
201366.859.041.811.742.11.64.42.9230.3
201467.056.927.211.618.81.81.82.7187.8
201570.360.720.411.214.11.52.43.5184.0
201680.072.225.011.311.61.81.03.3206.2
2017105.591.234.112.212.02.31.84.1263.4
201890.787.027.712.712.02.80.84.6238.2
201984.585.531.715.117.53.20.92.8241.3
202057.960.628.014.925.23.60.32.2192.7
2021(a)-7.2-53.1-12.8-2.8-5.1-0.3-0.4-3.1-84.9
202269.166.129.614.315.33.42.33.4203.6
  1. Due to the closure of international borders in March 2020 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 were removed from calculations for long-term Net Overseas Migration assumptions. A weighted average was calculated using the ten years from 2009-10 to 2018-19.

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state share of net overseas migration

With the release of sub-state population component data in the ABS publication Regional Population, regional overseas migration estimates have been used to calculate the capital city/rest of state for overseas migration.

Each state and territory's proportion of NOM is based on a weighted-average of the available timeseries from 2011-12 to 2018-19, with the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 removed from consideration due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The table below shows the assumed state/territory net overseas migration distribution.

 NSW (%)Vic. (%)Qld (%)SA (%)WA (%)Tas. (%)NT (%)ACT (%)
202334.2532.5114.456.877.541.571.121.65
202434.4332.5514.366.737.681.501.081.64
202534.6032.5814.286.597.821.441.041.63
202634.7732.6214.206.457.961.371.001.62
202734.9432.6614.116.308.101.300.961.61
202835.1132.7014.036.168.241.240.921.60
202935.2832.7313.956.028.371.170.881.58
203035.4532.7713.865.878.511.100.841.57
203135.6332.8113.785.738.651.040.801.56
2032-207135.8032.8413.695.598.790.970.761.55

 

 Higher assumptionMedium assumptionLower assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
New South Wales

84.51

13.39

97.90

68.67

11.43

80.10

52.83

9.47

62.30

Victoria

82.84

7.36

90.20

67.51

6.29

73.80

52.18

5.22

57.40

Queensland

22.50

15.45

37.95

18.18

12.87

31.05

13.86

10.29

24.15

South Australia

14.40

1.28

15.68

11.76

1.07

12.83

9.12

0.86

9.98

Western Australia

21.39

2.54

23.93

17.47

2.10

19.58

13.56

1.67

15.23

Tasmania

1.59

1.16

2.75

1.28

0.97

2.25

0.96

0.79

1.75

Northern Territory

1.67

0.53

2.20

1.37

0.43

1.80

1.06

0.34

1.40

Australian Capital Territory

. .

. .

4.40

. .

. .

3.60

. .

. .

2.80

Australia

233.30

41.70

275.00

189.83

35.17

225.00

146.37

28.63

175.00

. . not applicable

 

Assumed age structure of net overseas migration

The assumed age/sex structure of NOM for the states and territories is derived from the 2018–2020 NOM. Overseas migrant arrivals and departures by state/territory, age and sex are simultaneously constrained to the total assumed NOM level for Australia and to the assumed state/territory shares of NOM. The assumed age/sex structures are held constant throughout the projection period.

Net interstate migration

Summary

Interstate migration is a volatile and largely unpredictable component in population estimation or projection. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is influenced by many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns and individual lifestyle choices. As the effect of these factors cannot be anticipated, past net interstate migration trends are used as the basis for assuming future levels.

Historical data

Net interstate migration (NIM) estimates since 1 July 2009 are shown below. These are calculated using Medicare change of address records, defence data and Census data on usual residence one year ago and five years ago.

Year ending 30 JuneNSW Vic. Qld SA WA TasNT ACT 
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
2010-9.53.36.2-2.72.10.7-0.70.4
2011-13.53.56.8-2.67.00.0-2.51.4
2012-18.12.411.8-3.28.6-1.9-0.71.1
2013-14.66.48.9-4.85.7-1.3-0.50.2
2014-6.89.76.3-3.9-1.7-0.4-2.4-0.8
2015-6.811.16.9-4.6-4.30.1-2.3-0.1
2016-11.517.612.0-7.2-10.00.8-2.00.4
2017-16.013.717.5-6.3-11.91.9-1.92.9
2018-22.59.124.6-4.7-8.83.0-2.71.9
2019-23.86.522.6-3.3-3.42.2-3.02.2
2020-22.5-2.723.8-1.30.30.9-0.92.3
2021(a)-34.0-35.640.24.914.04.6-0.36.3
2022-39.3-14.948.80.210.3-0.4-2.6-2.2
  1. Due to the closure of state and territory borders in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 were removed from calculations for long-term Net Internal Migration assumptions.

Victoria has experienced recent net interstate migration losses after earlier gains, over the last decade.

Queensland remains the largest recipient of net interstate migration, while New South Wales continues to experience net interstate migration losses.

Western Australia has experienced a turn around from losses in 2014-19 to moderate gains in the most recent 3 years.

South Australia has experienced recent small gains, turning around from its 11 year trend of net interstate migration losses.

State/territory and capital city/rest of state assumptions

Levels of assumed net interstate migration were derived by analysing trends over the past ten years of data, not including those years affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and constraining them such that they sum to zero. The assumptions reflect the view that each state/territory will trend towards their short term average.

Three assumptions have been made about future net interstate migration levels:

  • large interstate flows: relatively large net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, corresponding to relatively large losses for other states and territories. For example, this equates to large net gains in Queensland and correspondingly large net losses in New South Wales;
  • medium interstate flows: medium net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and medium losses for others; and
  • small interstate flows: relatively small net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and small losses for others.
     

The medium series assumptions are based on NIM averages for the states and territories in the period 2010-2019. The large and small assumptions are based on minimum and maximum share of state values of observed arrivals and departures over the last ten years, with adjustments made based on the trend data, as well as ensuring that each sum of the state/territory NIM is zero.

It should be noted that for some states the large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate migration losses, therefore the small interstate flows assumption will yield greater population growth in such cases.

All assumptions are separated into arrivals and departures for each state/territory and capital city/rest of state (Greater Capital City Statistical Area). Rates for arrivals and departures for the states and territories are generated from movement data from recent Censuses to obtain age/sex levels. Further, 2016 and 2021 Census data are used to generate age/sex arrival and departure levels for each capital city/rest of state. As a result, all age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations sum to the net internal migration assumptions.

 Large interstate flows assumptionMedium interstate flows assumptionSmall interstate flows assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
New South Wales

-35.2

11.2

-24.0

-30.9

15.4

-15.5 

-26.7

19.7

-7.0

Victoria

-0.5

18.0

17.5

-6.4

14.4

8.0

-12.5

10.5

-2.0

Queensland

14.2

7.8

22.0

9.5

2.5

12.0

6.8

-0.8

6.0

South Australia

-5.4

-0.6

-6.0

-4.1

0.1

-4.0

–3.1

0.6

-2.5

Western Australia

-5.2

-6.8

–12.0

2.6

-2.1

0.5

7.2

0.8

8.0

Tasmania

0.8

1.7

2.5

-0.3

0.3

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

-2.5

Northern Territory

-2.1

-0.9

–3.0

-1.1

-0.4

-1.5

0.6

0.4

1.0

Australian Capital Territory

. .

. .

-1.0

. .

. .

0.5

. .

. .

3.0

. . not applicable

National

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)
High series1.7588.491.1275,000
Medium series1.683.986.8225,000
Low series1.4583.986.8175,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

Australia's population of 26.0 million at 30 June 2022 is projected to:

  • increase by an annual average of between 1.2% and 1.7% until June 2032
  • grow by an annual average of between 0.6% and 1.1% per year over the entire projection period
  • reach between 29.2 and 30.8 million people by 2032, and between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071
     

An assumption of zero net overseas migration has been included to demonstrate the trajectory of Australia's future population relying entirely on natural increase.

Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). 

Natural increase

There were 300,700 births and 183,300 deaths during 2021-22, resulting in a natural increase of 117,400 people. 

  • The number of births is projected to increase to between 284,700 and 482,700 births per year by 2071. 
  • The number of deaths is projected to reach between 378,200 and 402,800 by 2071.
  • Natural increase is projected to be between 118,000 (a decrease) and 104,500 people in 2071.
     

Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas migrant arrivals are assumed to exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 9.2 million to 14.3 million in total between 2022 and 2071. 

Population by age

Of the changes projected to occur in Australia's population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates. In all series this trend is projected to continue.

Median age

The median age for Australia is projected to increase from 38.5 years in 2022 to between 43.8 and 47.6 years in 2071. 

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 18% in 2022 to between 13% and 16% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65%  to between  59% and 60% in 2071
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27% in 2071
  • people aged 85 years and over will increase from 2.1% in 2022 to between 5.2% and 6.4% in 2071

States and territories

The high and medium series both project population growth for all states and territories between 2022 and 2071. The low series projects growth for all states and territories except South Australia and Tasmania which would start to decline in 2039 and 2029 respectively. New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state in all series, reaching over 9 million between 2028 and 2032. 

By 2032: 

  • New South Wales is projected to reach between 9.0 and 9.7 million people
  • Victoria's population is projected to reach between 7.6 and 8.2 million people
  • Queensland is projected to reach between 6.0 and 6.4 million people
  • Western Australia is projected to reach between 3.0 and 3.3 million
  • South Australia's population is projected to be between 1.9 and 2.1 million
  • Tasmania's population is projected to increase to between 579,600 and 645,600
  • the Northern Territory's population is projected to reach between 263,900 and 312,400
  • the population of Australian Capital Territory is projected to reach between 504,800 and 564,200 people. Its medium scenario is projected to exceed Tasmania's medium series population by the year 2048
     
Projected Population, 2071
 High series ('000)Medium series ('000)Low series ('000)
New South Wales13,80912,04510,841
Victoria13,76511,2459,266
Queensland9,7737,9956,839
South Australia2,4682,1871,988
Western Australia3,8954,0003,960
Tasmania843610425
Northern Territory441359337
Australian Capital Territory994740579
Australia(a)45,88939,18534,343
  1. Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.

Capital cities

At 30 June 2022, 67% of Australians lived in capital cities. This proportion is projected to increase to 68% by 2032.

Melbourne is projected to be the largest city in Australia by 2071 with a projected population between 6.5 million and 9.9 million, surpassing Sydney between 2032 and 2046. 

  • Sydney is projected to remain constant or increase from 65% of the state's population in 2022 to 66% in 2032.
  • Melbourne is projected to remain constant or increase from 76% of Victoria in 2022 to 77% in 2032.
  • Brisbane is projected to increase from 49% of Queensland's population to between 50% and 51% in 2032, becoming the majority part of Queensland's population. 
  • Adelaide is projected to grow from 78% in 2022 to between 79% and 80% in 2032.
  • Perth is projected to remain constant or increase from 80% to 81%.
  • Hobart is projected to increase its share of Tasmania's population, from 44% in 2022 to between 45% and 46% in 2032.
  • Darwin is projected to remain constant or increase its share of the territory’s population from 60% in 2022 to 61% in 2032.

New South Wales

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.7888.491.197,900-24,000
Medium series1.6383.986.980,100-15,500
Low series1.4883.986.962,300-7,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

New South Wales' population of 8.2 million is projected to:

  • grow by between 0.4% and 1.2% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach between 9.2 million and 9.6 million by 2032, and between 10.8 million and 13.8 million by 2071
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because New South Wales experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In the high series, the number of births is projected to exceed the number of deaths for New South Wales.
  • In the low and medium series, deaths are projected to exceed births from 2044 (low) and 2055 (medium).

The declining natural increase in the medium and low assumption series is due to the lower total fertility rate assumption in these projections.

Net overseas migration

  • Net overseas migration is projected to return to assumed levels between 62,300 (low) and 97,900 (high) per year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in all years, resulting in a net interstate migration loss for the entire period. 

Population by age

Median age

The median age is projected to increase:

  • for New South Wales from 38.7 years in 2022 to between 43.5 years and 47.6 years in 2071

 

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 18% to between 13% and 16% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 64% to between 58% and 60%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Victoria

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.6589.091.490,20017,500
Medium series1.5184.487.173,8008,000
Low series1.3784.487.157,400-2,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

Victoria's population of 6.6 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.7% and 1.5% per year, higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach a population of between 9.3 million and 13.8 million by 2071

Natural increase

  • In the high series, the number of births is projected to exceed the number of deaths for Victoria.
  • In the low and medium series, deaths are projected to exceed births from 2043 (low) and 2056 (medium).

Net overseas migration

  • In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 57,400 and 90,200 people added each year from 2032. 

Net interstate migration

  • In the high and medium series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain of 8,000 and 17,500 people per year respectively from 2027. 
  • The low series assumes a net interstate migration loss of 2,000 people per year from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Victoria is projected to increase:

  • from 38.0 years in 2022 to between 43.7 and 47.7 years in 2071

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 18% to between 12% and 15% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 60% and 61%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages. 

Queensland

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.8187.990.837,95022,000
Medium series1.6683.586.631,05012,000
Low series1.5083.586.624,1506,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032
     

Population size and change

Queensland's population of 5.3 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.5% and 1.2% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach a population of between 6.8 million and 9.8 million by 2071

Natural increase

  • In the high series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Queensland.
  • In the low and medium series, deaths will exceed births from 2044 (low) and 2056 (medium)

Net overseas migration

  • In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 24,200 and 38,000 people added each year from 2032. 

Net interstate migration

  • In all series, interstate arrivals exceed departures for all years, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 6,000 and 22,000 people per year from 2027. 

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Queensland is projected to increase: 

  • from 38.6 years in 2022, to between 43.3 and 47.5 years in 2071

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 19% to between 13% and 16% in 2071
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 64% to between 58% and 60%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

South Australia

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.7288.191.015,675-6,000
Medium series1.5783.686.812,825-4,000
Low series1.4283.686.89,975-2,500
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

South Australia's population of 1.8 million people is projected to:

  • increase by between 0% and 0.8% per year, a slower rate than that projected for all other states other than Tasmania
  • reach a population of between 1.8 million and 2.7 million people by 2071
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because South Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

Under the:

  • high series, natural increase is projected for South Australia for the whole period
  • low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in South Australia from 2032 (low) and 2037 (medium)

Net overseas migration

  • Net overseas migration is assumed to increase to 15,700 people per year under the high series and decline to 10,000 people per year under the low series, from 2032. 

Net interstate migration

  • In all series, interstate departures will exceed interstate arrivals for all years, resulting in a net interstate migration loss for the entire period. 
  • This loss is projected to be between 2,500 and 6,000 people per year from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of South Australia is projected to increase: 

  • from 40.7 years in 2022 to between 45.6 and 50.0 years in 2071, remaining the second oldest of all states, behind Tasmania

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0-14 is projected to decrease from 17% to between 12% and 15% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 is projected to decrease from 63% to between 57% and 59%
  • people aged 65 and over will increase from 20% in 2022 to between 27% and 30%
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Western Australia

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.8188.791.523,925-12,000
Medium series1.6584.287.319,575500
Low series1.5084.287.315,2258,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

Western Australia's population of 2.8 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.1% and 1.2% per year
  • reach a population of between 2.9 million and 5.1 million by 2071
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because Western Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In the high series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Western Australia.
  • In the low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in 2048 (low) and 2053 (medium).

Net overseas migration

  • Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 15,200 and 23,900 people from 2032.

Net interstate migration

  • Under the high assumption, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 12,000 people annually from 2027.
  • Under the medium and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain 500 and 8,000 people per year respectively from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Western Australia is projected to increase: 

  • from 38.3 years in 2022 to between 44.0 and 48.9 years in 2071.

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 19% to between 13% and 16% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 58% and 60%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 16% in 2022 to between 25% and 29%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Tasmania

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.7887.089.72,7502,500
Medium series1.6282.685.52,2500
Low series1.4782.685.51,750-2,500
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

Tasmania's population of 571,000 people is projected to:

  • increase to 843,300 and 609,900 respectively in 2071 under high and medium series
  • decline to 425,400 by 2071 under the low assumption

Natural increase

  • Under all assumptions, the number of deaths will exceed births for most years, leading to natural decrease for Tasmania for these years.
  • Natural decrease is projected from 2027 (low series) and 2043 (high series). 
     

Net overseas migration

  • Overseas arrivals are projected to exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 1,800 and 2,800 people per year from 2032. 

Net interstate migration

  • Under the high and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 2,500 and loss of 2,500 people per year respectively from 2027.
  • Under the medium assumption, net interstate migration is projected to be zero (arrivals equal departures) from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Tasmania is projected to increase:

  • from 41.8 years in 2022 to between 46.3 and 52.2 years in 2071, the oldest of all states or territories

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0-14 is projected to decrease from 17% to between 12% and 15% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 is projected to decrease from 62% to between 56% and 58%
  • people aged 65 and over will increase from 21% in 2022 to between 29% and 33%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Northern Territory

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.9282.686.12,200-3,000
Medium series1.7578.482.11,800-1,500
Low series1.5978.482.11,4001,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

The Northern Territory's population of 250,200 people is projected to:

  • increase by up to 1.6% per year (high) or experience a small decrease of 0.1% per year (low)
  • reach a population between 234,300 and 566,200 by 2071

The largest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because the Northern Territory experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In the three series, the number of births will continue to exceed deaths, resulting in natural increase for the Northern Territory. 

Net overseas migration

  • In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed departures resulting in positive net overseas migration between 2,200 and 1,400 people per year from 2032. 

Net interstate migration

  • Under the medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,500 and 3,000 people per year respectively from 2027.
  • Under the low assumption, net interstate migration is projected to gain 1,000 annually people from 2027.
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of the Northern Territory is projected to increase from:

  • 33.5 years in 2022 to between 37.3 and 40.7 years in 2071, remaining the youngest of all states and territories

Age structure

The proportion of 

  • children aged 0-14 is projected to decrease from 21%, to between 16% and 19% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 is projected to decrease from 70% in 2022 to between 65% and 67% 
  • people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 9% in 2022 to between 15% and 17%
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Australian Capital Territory

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(c)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.6189.791.94,400-1,000
Medium series1.4785.187.63,600500
Low series1.3385.187.62,8003,000
  1. From 2027
  2. At 2071
  3. From 2032

Population size and change

The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 456,900 people is projected to:

  • increase between 0.5% and 1.6% per year 
  • reach between 578,700 and 994,500 by 2071
     

Natural increase

  • In the medium and high series births will exceed the number of deaths over the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory. 
  • In the low series, deaths will exceed births in 2053.

Net overseas migration

  • Net overseas migration is projected to return to longer term averages.
  • Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in a net overseas migration gain of between 2,800 and 4,400 people per year from 2032. 
     

Net interstate migration

  • Under the medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 500 and 3,000 people per year from 2027. 
  • Under the low assumption, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 people per year from 2027.
     

Population by age

Median age

  • The median age of the population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase from 35.6 years in 2022 to between 41.9 and 45.9 years in 2071.

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0-14 is projected to decrease from 18% in 2017 to between 13% and 16% in 2071
  • the working age population aged 15-64 is projected to decrease from 68% to between 62% and 63%
  • people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 14% in 2022 to between 22% and 25%
     
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Data downloads

note

Time series spreadsheets are only provided for the high, medium and low series. 

Time series spreadsheets

Data files

Data cube

Projected population, components of change and summary statistics - Australia, state/territory, greater capital city and rest of state, 2022 (base) to 2071

The projection assumptions (detailed) datacube is expected to be released at a later stage.

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3222.0.
 

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