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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Sep 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/10/2010   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

2 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.0%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.0%
(2) Falls by 3.0%
no.
no.
no.

2010
June
86 308
86 273
86 360
July
85 999
86 110
85 879
August
85 691
86 077
85 314
September
85 392
86 197
84 761




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