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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Sep 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/10/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The October 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

2 The October 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.

2008
June
86 042
86 001
86 089
July
84 493
84 610
84 377
August
82 997
83 366
82 596
September
81 612
82 377
80 925




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