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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Nov 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/12/2010   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The December 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the November 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

2 The December 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the November 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.0%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.0%
(2) Falls by 3.0%
no.
no.
no.

2010
August
85 613
85 568
85 655
September
85 393
85 522
85 292
October
85 262
85 748
84 987
November
85 268
86 120
84 687




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