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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jul 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/08/2012   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The August 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the July 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The August 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the July 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2012
April
89 988
89 975
90 043
May
90 584
90 610
90 432
June
90 990
91 053
90 466
July
91 187
91 370
90 263




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