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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Feb 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/03/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The March 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the February 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

2 The March 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the February 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.

New Motor Vehicle Sales
Trend sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.

2007
November
89 859
89 845
89 942
December
90 505
90 554
90 297
2008
January
90 970
91 114
90 265
February
91 300
91 546
89 945




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