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6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jan 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/02/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised. This revision is a combined result of the concurrent seasonal adjustment process and the application of surrogates of the Henderson average to the seasonally adjusted series (see paragraphs 25 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes).

The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The revisions in the scenarios below are only due to the use of surrogates of the Henderson average, as the impact of revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates can not be estimated in advance.

1 The February seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the January estimate by:
0.26% for employment
1.80% for the unemployment rate

2 The February seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the January estimate by:
0.26% for employment
1.80% for the unemployment rate

The percentage changes of 0.26% and 1.80% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.

Employment

Graph: What if Employed Persons


WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:

Trend as published
(1) 10 755.4 i.e. rises by 0.26%
(2) 10 731.8 i.e. falls by 0.26%

2008
October
10 740.6
10 740.4
10 741.3
November
10 743.6
10 744.3
10 741.8
December
10 745.1
10 748.0
10 739.7
2009
January
10 745.4
10 751.8
10 736.2



Unemployment Rate

Graph: What if Unemployment Rate


WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:

Trend as published
(1) 4.8 i.e. rises by 1.80%
(2) 4.7 i.e. falls by 1.80%

2008
October
4.4
4.4
4.4
November
4.5
4.5
4.5
December
4.5
4.6
4.6
2009
January
4.6
4.7
4.6




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