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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 September 150 176 0.4 150 176 0.4 150 176 0.4 December 150 607 0.3 150 563 0.3 150 734 0.4 2015 March 150 746 0.1 150 768 0.1 150 710 0.0 June 150 853 0.1 151 289 0.3 150 470 -0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.2% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.2% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 September 64 861 -2.3 64 861 -2.3 64 861 -2.3 December 64 154 -1.1 63 912 -1.5 64 237 -1.0 2015 March 63 745 -0.6 63 806 -0.2 63 693 -0.8 June 63 154 -0.9 63 982 0.3 62 420 -2.0