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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.8% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.8% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 September 13 074 -3.9 13 074 -3.9 13 074 -3.9 December 12 951 -0.9 12 887 -1.4 12 991 -0.6 2010 March 13 010 0.5 13 032 1.1 12 992 - June 13 163 1.2 13 332 2.3 12 832 -1.2 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 September 13 847 2.3 13 847 2.3 13 847 2.3 December 14 068 1.6 14 068 1.6 14 132 2.1 2010 March 13 945 -0.9 13 946 -0.9 13 924 -1.5 June 13 597 -2.5 13 670 -2.0 13 363 -4.0

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 September 26 777 -0.6 26 777 -0.6 26 777 -0.6 December 26 988 0.8 26 948 0.6 27 071 1.1 2010 March 26 979 - 26 990 0.2 26 947 -0.5 June 26 768 -0.8 26 894 -0.4 26 302 -2.4 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)