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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 44 and 45 in the EN.

Buildings and Structures

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.7% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.7% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2008 September 10 945 7.8 10 945 7.8 10 945 7.8 December 11 701 6.9 11 715 7.0 11 778 7.6 2009 March 12 130 3.7 12 125 3.5 12 101 2.7 June 12 244 0.9 12 285 1.3 11 983 -1.0

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2008 September 12 856 0.9 12 856 0.9 12 856 0.9 December 12 471 -3.0 12 429 -3.3 12 498 -2.8 2009 March 12 006 -3.7 12 029 -3.2 12 005 -3.9 June 11 659 -2.9 12 006 -0.2 11 673 -2.8

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.4% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.4% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2008 September 23 813 4.0 23 813 4.0 23 813 4.0 December 24 141 1.4 24 093 1.2 24 283 2.0 2009 March 24 081 -0.2 24 108 0.1 24 042 -1.0 June 23 925 -0.6 24 400 1.2 23 489 -2.3