5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/05/2016   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $27,861m and the calculated standard error in this case is $461m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $27,861m.

For instance, the standard error of $461m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $27,400m to $28,322m ($27,861m ± $461m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $26,939m to $28,783m ($27,861m ± $922m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2016 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
11
10
14
Manufacturing
17
82
83
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
14
38
41
Construction
7
193
193
Wholesale Trade
88
66
116
Retail Trade
55
61
74
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
110
127
164
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
36
36
Financial and Insurance Services
5
60
61
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
163
122
218
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
19
97
101
Other Selected Services
100
98
133
Total
259
372
461
New South Wales
119
252
281
Victoria
108
149
180
Queensland
131
137
189
South Australia
88
77
112
Western Australia
137
78
162
Tasmania
3
23
24
Northern Territory
15
42
44
Australian Capital Territory
-
6
6
Australia
259
372
461
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $36,293m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $27,861m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $494m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $8,432m.

For instance, the standard error of $494m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $7,938m to $8,926m ($8,432m ± $494m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $7,444m to $9,420m ($8,432m ± $988m)

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2016 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
12
14
18
Manufacturing
17
107
108
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
18
17
27
Construction
10
221
223
Wholesale Trade
66
90
98
Retail Trade
40
119
114
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
61
149
166
Information Media and Telecommunications
8
29
31
Financial and Insurance Services
13
67
68
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
150
179
254
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
28
144
146
Other Selected Services
109
120
155
Total
214
411
494
New South Wales
114
279
315
Victoria
98
201
218
Queensland
122
205
260
South Australia
65
75
113
Western Australia
73
102
122
Tasmania
12
23
27
Northern Territory
10
47
50
Australian Capital Territory
1
14
14
Australia
214
411
494