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5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Dec 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/02/2012   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the December 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the December 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

June 2011
44 344
1.7
44 344
1.7
44 344
1.7
July 2011
45 070
1.6
45 045
1.6
45 085
1.7
August 2011
45 677
1.3
45 645
1.3
45 714
1.4
September 2011
46 219
1.2
46 203
1.2
46 238
1.1
October 2011
46 783
1.2
46 836
1.4
46 745
1.1
November 2011
47 332
1.2
47 538
1.5
47 237
1.1
December 2011
47 831
1.1
48 227
1.5
47 659
0.9




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