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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Analysis of short-term resident departures for Fiji, as seen below, shows the effect of a political coup in late 2006 and the impact of the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009. For Indonesia, the graph shows the introduction of breaks in series due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of 12 October 2002 and 1 October 2005. Further breaks were inserted in December 2003 and December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. The graph for South Africa shows, in the seasonally adjusted series, the effect of South Africa hosting the 2010 FIFA World Cup (11 June to 11 July).
With the reintroduction of the trend series for short-term resident departures (see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25), breaks in series for the following graphs have been inserted from April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. For example, the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009, and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar.
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