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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/12/2003   
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JUNE QTR KEY FIGURES


PRELIMINARY DATA
Population at end
Jun qtr 2003
Change over previous year
'000
'000
%

New South Wales
6,686.6
52.5
0.8
Victoria
4,917.4
60.2
1.2
Queensland
3,796.8
85.8
2.3
South Australia
1,527.4
8.7
0.6
Western Australia
1,952.3
27.7
1.4
Tasmania
477.1
4.5
0.9
Northern Territory
198.4
-0.3
-0.2
Australian Capital Territory
322.9
1.3
0.4
Australia(a)
19,881.5
240.5
1.2

(a) Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.


Graph - Population growth


Graph - Population growth rate


JUNE QTR KEY POINTS

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
  • The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at June 2003 was 19,881,500 persons, an increase of 240,500 persons since June 2002 and 53,800 persons since March 2003.
  • For the year ended June 2003 natural increase was 115,200 persons, a decrease of 2,000 persons (2%) on the number recorded in the year ended June 2002 (117,200).
  • Preliminary net overseas migration was 125,300 persons in the year ended June 2003, 14,700 higher than in the year ended June 2002 (110,600).

POPULATION GROWTH RATES
  • The national growth rate during the 12 months ended June 2003 was 1.2%, the same as the growth rate for the previous 12 months. The Australian growth rate was equal to the world's growth during the 12 months ended June 2003.
  • With the exception of the Northern Territory all states and the Australian Capital Territory recorded positive growth in the year ended June 2003. Queensland recorded the highest growth rate (2.3%) while the Australian Capital Territory recorded the lowest (0.4%). The Northern Territory recorded negative growth at -0.2%.

NOTES

INTRODUCTION

Estimated resident population (ERP) data in this publication are based on the 2001 Census of Population and Housing (2001 census). Exceptions are tables 8 (excluding 2001 estimates), 17, 18 and 19 which are still based on the 1996 Census of Population and Housing (1996 census).

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE


Revisions included in this issue are as follows:

  • Natural increase - September quarter 2001 to June quarter 2002, inclusive
    • Births - September quarter 2001 to June quarter 2002, inclusive
    • Deaths - September quarter 2001 to June quarter 2002, inclusive
  • Net overseas migration - September quarter 2001 to March quarter 2003, inclusive
    • Net permanent and long-term movement - Nil change
    • Category jumping - September quarter 2001 to March quarter 2003, inclusive
  • Net interstate migration - September quarter 2001 to March quarter 2003, inclusive
  • ERP - September quarter 2001 to March quarter 2003, inclusive.

ERP DATA STATUS

At any point in time this publication contains final, revised and preliminary ERP data. The status of the ERP data included in this issue is as follows:-

  • Final - All ERP data up to and including June quarter 2001
  • Revised - ERP data from September quarter 2001 to June quarter 2002, inclusive
  • Preliminary - ERP data from September quarter 2002 to June quarter 2003, inclusive.

DATA NOT YET AVAILABLE

Data not yet available in this issue are as follows:-

  • Table 5 - ERP, major population regions, at 30 June 2003. Previously published data in this table have not been revised in this issue.
  • Household estimates for 2002 and 2003 in tables 17, 18 and 19 are currently under review.


MAIN FEATURES

INTRODUCTION

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at June 2003 was 19,881,500 persons, an increase of 240,500 since June 2002 and 53,800 since March 2003. The national growth rate during the 12 months ended June 2003 was 1.2%, the same as the growth rate for the previous 12 months.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 months ended June 2003 Australia's population growth rate (1.2%) was the same as the world's population growth rate. When compared with selected countries it was the same as Hong Kong (1.2%), comparable with New Zealand (1.1%), higher than Japan and Germany (each 0.1%) and lower than Singapore (3.5%).

In figures provided by the US Bureau of the Census (International Data Base) for 227 countries, arranged from highest to lowest size, Australia's population ranked 52nd in the year 2003 and is projected to rank 65th in 2050.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK, Selected countries



ESTIMATED POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION

RANK



2002
2003
Growth rate
2050
2003
2050
Country
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
19.6
19.9
1.2
26.4
52
65
Canada
31.9
32.2
1.0
41.4
35
42
China
1,279.2
1,287.0
0.6
1,417.6
1
2
Germany
82.4
82.4
0.1
73.6
13
24
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7.3
7.4
1.2
7.8
94
112
India
1,034.2
1,049.7
1.5
1,601.0
2
1
Indonesia
231.3
234.9
1.5
336.2
4
4
Japan
127.1
127.2
0.1
99.9
10
16
Malaysia
22.7
23.1
1.9
43.1
46
41
New Zealand
3.9
4.0
1.1
4.8
121
124
Papua New Guinea
5.2
5.3
2.4
10.7
109
92
Singapore
4.5
4.6
3.5
10.8
115
91
Thailand
63.6
64.3
1.0
74.0
19
23
United Kingdom
59.9
60.1
0.3
64.0
21
29
United States of America
287.7
290.3
0.9
420.1
3
3
World
6,228.6
6,302.5
1.2
9,084.5
. .
. .

. . not applicable
Sources: ABS for Australian estimated and projected populations (Series B); US Bureau of the Census, International Data Base for selected countries and world estimated and projected populations and all rankings.


COMPONENTS OF AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION CHANGE


Natural increase

Natural increase is the number of births minus the number of deaths recorded in a period.

For the year ended June 2003 natural increase was 115,200 persons, a decrease of 2,000 persons (2%) on the number recorded in the year ended June 2002 (117,200). The number of births in the year ended June 2003 (248,000) increased by less than 1% when compared with the previous 12 months (247,400). The number of deaths increased by 2% over the same period from 130,300 in 2002 to 132,800 in 2003.

Net overseas migration

Overseas migration is made up of both people who are settling in Australia (or settling overseas) on a permanent basis as well as people who are temporarily in Australia (or overseas) for more than twelve months. It includes New Zealanders and others who do have permanent visas to migrate to Australia as well as people who are leaving Australia. Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is therefore not recommended for use as a direct measure of the Australian Government's migration and humanitarian programs (see http://www.immi.gov.au/statistics/).

From September quarter 2001 onwards, the ABS has implemented a new method of calculating NOM based on linking actual travel movements and measuring actual length of stay in, or absence from, Australia. As there needs to be an accumulation of twelve months data to ascertain actual travel movements for the purpose of establishing usual residence, the preliminary NOM for 2002-03 has been modelled based on the stated intentions on passenger cards using the actual outcomes from 2001-02. It is expected that this method will improve as more data become available and the modelling technique is refined.

To be counted as part of the Australian population, a person needs to be in Australia for twelve months or more (this has been applied as an unbroken period). Increasing mobility of some segments of the overseas visitor population and the application of the twelve month rule mean that some people can spend a considerable amount of time in Australia and still not be counted as part of the Australian population as they are never in Australia for more than twelve months at a time. For example, many overseas students studying in Australia who travel home each year for holidays, and temporary business visa holders who travel regularly into or out of Australia are in this category. Similarly, Australians living mainly overseas but who visit Australia on a regular basis may still be counted as part of the Australian population even though they live most of each year overseas. Whilst a continuous period of 12 months has been used in measuring NOM to date, the ABS proposes to investigate and consult on the implications of adopting alternative conceptual definitions.

The presentation of overseas migration statistics in this publication follows the established format used in previous releases. However, this is being reviewed for the forthcoming issues.

STATE/TERRITORY DISTRIBUTION OF NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION

The state/territory distribution of permanent migration or long-term visitors is determined based on information reported on arrival or departure from Australia.

Where a traveller stated an intention to stay less than twelve months but has stayed longer and not yet departed, the ABS has used information of actual state/territory of stay distribution from short-term visitors departing Australia who were in Australia between six and twelve months. Therefore, the state/territory distributions of NOM need to be treated with caution and are subject to revision. It is expected that these estimates will improve as investigations are undertaken over financial years as actual data on state/territory of stay becomes available for this segment of the overseas visitor population when they leave Australia.

More information on the new method of measuring NOM and the method for distributing NOM to states and territories can be found in the feature article: Overseas Migration: People Whose Intended Length of Stay is Different From Their Actual Length of Stay and in the Demography Working Paper 2003/5-Net Overseas Migration: Adjusting for Actual Duration of Stay or Absence on this web site.

FINDINGS

Preliminary net overseas migration was 125,300 persons in the year ended June 2003, 14,700 higher than in the year ended June 2002 (110,600).

On a quarterly basis, preliminary net overseas migration in June quarter 2003 (22,100) exceeded June quarter 2002 (15,300) by 6,800 persons and was lower than March quarter 2002 (41,600) by 19,600 persons.

STATES AND TERRITORIES

Population

The population of Australia's states and territories at June 2003 was as follows: New South Wales 6,686,600, Victoria 4,917,400, Queensland 3,796,800, South Australia 1,527,400, Western Australia 1,952,300, Tasmania 477,100, Northern Territory 198,400 and the Australian Capital Territory 322,900.

Growth rates

With the exception of the Northern Territory all states and the Australian Capital Territory recorded positive growth in the year ended June 2003. Queensland recorded the highest growth (2.3%) followed by Western Australia (1.4%), Victoria (1.2%), Tasmania (0.9%), New South Wales (0.8%), South Australia (0.6%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.4%). The Northern Territory recorded a loss (-0.2%). The Northern Territory loss was mainly due to increased interstate migration losses (-3,400).

All states and the Northern Territory recorded positive growth in June quarter 2003. The highest gain was recorded by Queensland (0.6%) and the lowest by South Australia (0.1%). The Australian Capital Territory experienced little change.

Interstate migration

In the year ended June 2003 Queensland and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains, Victoria recorded little change and the remaining states and territories recorded losses. Queensland had a gain of 39,200 persons while Tasmania gained 1,900 persons. New South Wales lost the highest number of persons (-31,800) followed by the Northern Territory (-3,400), Western Australia (-2,800), the Australian Capital Territory (-1,600) and South Australia (-1,500).

For June quarter 2003 only Queensland and Tasmania had positive growth. Victoria joined the remaining states and territories in recording losses in net interstate migration.


Graph - Net interstate migration, States and territories

TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE, Summary(a)

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
POPULATION


Growth on
Growth on
Net permanent
Net
previous
previous
Natural
and long-term
Category
overseas
At end
year
year
Births
Deaths
increase
movement
jumping
migration
of period
(b)
(b)
Period
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
%

1997-98
249.1
129.3
119.9
79.2
-
79.2
18,711.3
193.7
1.05
1998-99
250.0
128.3
121.7
96.5
-
96.5
18,925.9
214.6
1.15
1999-2000
249.3
128.4
120.9
107.3
-
107.3
19,153.4
227.5
1.20
2000-01
247.5
128.9
118.6
135.7
-
135.7
19,413.2
259.9
1.36
2001-02
247.4
130.3
117.2
133.7
-23.1
110.6
19,641.0
227.7
1.17
2002-03
248.0
132.8
115.2
154.2
-28.9
125.3
19,881.5
240.5
1.22
1997
251.1
128.8
122.3
83.7
-11.3
72.4
18,609.1
188.8
1.02
1998
248.3
127.4
120.8
88.8
-
88.8
18,814.3
205.2
1.10
1999
250.2
128.2
122.0
104.2
-
104.2
19,038.3
224.1
1.19
2000
249.2
128.8
120.4
111.4
-
111.4
19,272.6
234.3
1.23
2001
246.6
128.8
117.8
140.3
-4.2
136.1
19,529.3
256.6
1.33
2002
250.2
134.9
115.4
139.0
-25.8
113.2
19,757.9
228.6
1.17
2001
    June
61.3
32.1
29.2
22.4
-
22.4
19,413.2
259.9
1.36
    September
63.9
35.2
28.7
35.7
-7.9
27.7
19,469.6
255.4
1.33
    December
60.8
32.3
28.5
27.5
3.7
31.2
19,529.3
256.6
1.33
2002
    March
61.3
29.6
31.7
50.6
-14.2
36.4
19,597.3
237.1
1.22
    June
61.5
33.1
28.4
20.0
-4.7
15.3
19,641.0
227.7
1.17
    September
63.7
38.9
24.8
39.9
-14.2
25.8
19,691.5
221.9
1.14
    December
63.8
33.2
30.6
28.5
7.3
35.8
19,757.9
228.6
1.17
2003
    March
57.0
28.9
28.1
60.4
-18.7
41.6
19,827.6
230.3
1.18
    June
63.5
31.7
31.8
25.4
-3.3
22.1
19,881.5
240.5
1.22

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

(a) See Explanatory Notes for concepts used and the Glossary for definitions of terms used. Includes Other Territories from September 1993 - see paragraph 2 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) Differences between total growth and the sum of natural increase and net migration during 1996-2001 are due to intercensal discrepancy.


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