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SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for March 2004 will be available on the ABS website http://www.abs.gov.au on 15 April 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the home page and selecting Main Features (located under Statistical Products and Services) and then 34. Migration. Select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).
For data quality issues see the appendix of this publication.
This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and/or Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
Trend estimates for short-term resident departures have been revised following recent observations of a recovery in short-term resident departures to Indonesia. See paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
INCREASING TRAVEL BETWEEN NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA
In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand in February 2004 were 30% higher compared with February 2003. December 2003 and January 2004 also recorded relatively large increases compared with the same month a year earlier (up 21% and 14% respectively). However, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates indicate the presence of volatility in the original series, with calendar related and irregular effects influencing the series.
The trend series reveals the underlying behaviour of the series without the influence of seasonal or irregular effects. According to trend estimates, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand have recorded steady monthly increases since March 2003. This growth has not been as strong or as rapid as that suggested by the original series. Similar trends have also been observed for short-term resident departures to New Zealand.
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
The top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2004 and the percentage and numeric change compared with February 2003 are presented in the table below.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a sharp increase in the number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia in December 2003 (up 60% or 10,900 movements) compared with the previous month. Figures for January and February 2004 remained at this relatively high level, indicating a return to the trend levels experienced prior to the Bali bombing (12 October 2002). As a result of this change, a break in the trend series has been introduced from December 2003. Please see paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
The top ten destinations of short-term resident departures for February 2004 and the percentage and numeric change compared with February 2003 are presented in the table below.
The above presentation of movements in estimates does not consider whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.
PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS
There were 8,820 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2004, an increase of 21% compared with February 2003 (7,310 movements). Settlers born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (16%) of permanent arrivals for February 2004. The second largest proportion of settlers were born in the United Kingdom (15%).
Statistics on OAD relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).
There were 4,590 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during February 2004, an increase of 15% compared with February 2003 (3,980 movements).
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