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8501.0.55.003 - Contribution of Gambling to Retail Estimates, Sep 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/11/2004   
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INTRODUCTION

This quarterly article supplements information presented in the publication, Retail Trade, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0). It presents information about Net proceeds received from licensed gambling activities (hereafter called Gambling) undertaken by businesses in the Pubs, taverns and bars and Clubs (hospitality) industries. These industries are called 'Hotels and licensed clubs' in Retail Trade, Australia.


The July 2004 issue of Retail Trade, Australia presented the first release of estimates from the Retail Business survey compiled using a new sample design and an improved estimation method. This caused a shift in level for the series and this shift has been smoothed into all series. The Gambling series, which are a component of the Hotels and licensed clubs series, were also affected by the changes mentioned and the shift in level for the Gambling series has been smoothed back from June quarter 2004 to September quarter 1996. Estimates for September quarter 2004 are collected under the new sample design and estimation method.


The Gambling series and related quarterly Hotels and licensed clubs and total state series have had an annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling has been introduced into the monthly retail turnover series but not to the quarterly series due to the span of time available being too short.


Gambling includes:

  • commission from TAB and Keno transactions
  • net takings from Bingo
  • net revenue received from poker machines and other electronic gaming machines.

For further background about the Gambling series, please refer to the feature article in the December 2002 issue of Retail Trade, Australia.


This article will be updated on the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Web Site once a quarter about a week after the release of the March, June, September and December issues of Retail Trade, Australia.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



SUMMARY COMMENTARY


FINDINGS

It can be seen from Table 1 that, for each quarter, the rate of quarterly growth can vary between the Gambling, Hotels and licensed clubs and Total retail series. Any of the three series can have the strongest growth in a particular quarter. Over the period from September quarter 2002 to September quarter 2004, the Total retail series grew by 13.6%, Hotels and licensed clubs grew by 5.7% while Gambling grew by 4.9%.

1. GAMBLING IN RETAIL TRADE, AUSTRALIA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Gambling
Hotels and licensed clubs
Total Retail
Net proceeds
Percentage change
Turnover
Percentage change
Turnover
Percentage change
Quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2002
September
1,522.1
8.3
4,022.7
2.4
43,870.7
1.5
December
1,489.8
-2.1
3,950.1
-1.8
44,314.9
1.0
2003
March
1,535.0
3.0
4,062.8
2.9
44,620.9
0.7
June
1,564.6
1.9
4,159.4
2.4
45,750.7
2.5
September
1,543.4
-1.4
4,177.3
0.4
46,919.0
2.6
December
1,572.9
1.9
4,340.6
3.9
48,073.2
2.5
2004
March
1,556.2
-1.1
4,299.3
-1.0
48,950.4
1.8
June
1,624.1
4.4
4,393.0
2.2
49,431.6
1.0
September
1,596.9
-1.7
4,252.8
-3.2
49,828.9
0.8


Graph 2 compares the growth rates of Gambling, Total retail and Total retail adjusted to exclude gambling (although other turnover for Hotels and licensed clubs is included). This shows that Total retail and Total retail excluding gambling generally grow at a similar rate. This reflects the overall contribution of gambling to Total retail as can be seen in Table 3.

2. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN QUARTERLY TURNOVER, Seasonally Adjusted
Graph: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN QUARTERLY TURNOVER, Seasonally Adjusted



Table 3 shows that gambling has remained a relatively stable proportion of both turnover for Hotels and licensed clubs and Total retail. In the September quarter 2004, gambling as a percentage of Total Retail turnover was 3.2%.

3. GAMBLING AS A PROPORTION OF HOTELS AND LICENSED CLUBS AND TOTAL RETAIL, AUSTRALIA, Seasonally Adjusted

Hotels and licensed clubs
Total retail
Quarter
%
%

2002
September
37.8
3.5
December
37.7
3.4
2003
March
37.8
3.4
June
37.6
3.4
September
36.9
3.3
December
36.2
3.3
2004
March
36.2
3.2
June
37.0
3.3
September
37.5
3.2


From Graph 4 it can be seen that in September quarter 2004, gambling as a proportion of state turnover is highest in New South Wales and lowest in Western Australia and Tasmania. This relationship between the states has been reasonably consistent since the data has been analysed but needs to be considered in the context of the varying state restrictions on gaming machines.

4. CONTRIBUTION OF GAMBLING TO TOTAL TURNOVER, Seasonally Adusted - September Quarter 2004
Graph: CONTRIBUTION OF GAMBLING TO TOTAL TURNOVER, Seasonally Adusted, September Quarter 2004



Table 5 shows there was a marked drop in the proportion of gambling as a percentage of turnover for Victoria in the December quarter 2002 coinciding with the introduction of restrictions on smoking in Hotels and licensed clubs.

5. CONTRIBUTION OF GAMBLING TO TOTAL TURNOVER, BY STATE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
South Australia
Western Australia
Tasmania
Northern Territory
Australian Capital Territory
Quarter
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

2002
September
6.3
1.8
2.5
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.4
3.5
December
6.5
1.3
2.6
3.2
0.0
0.4
1.4
2.9
2003
March
6.7
1.2
2.6
3.3
0.0
0.4
1.4
3.2
June
6.6
1.3
2.6
3.4
0.0
0.6
1.3
3.1
September
6.0
1.3
2.9
3.3
0.0
0.5
1.4
2.9
December
6.2
1.3
2.6
3.4
0.0
0.4
1.3
2.8
2004
March
6.1
1.3
2.5
3.3
0.0
0.5
1.4
2.9
June
6.3
1.3
2.6
3.4
0.0
0.4
1.1
2.8
September
6.3
1.2
2.4
3.1
0.0
0.4
1.2
2.9



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the level estimate for Australia (original data) are shown below. The standard error associated with the seasonally adjusted series is approximately the same as for the original estimates.

6. STANDARD ERRORS

Estimate
Standard error
Relative Standard error
Data series
$m
$m
%

Net proceeds from gambling
September quarter 2004
1,658.4
56.3
3.4



RELATED INFORMATION

The ABS produces a more comprehensive range of data on gambling via its service industries program. Detailed surveys of the Pubs, taverns and bars industry, Clubs industry and Casino industry are usually conducted every three years. For more information about the service industries program please contact Gabrielle Robbie on (02) 6252 6133.

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