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1346.0.55.003 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/12/2012  First Issue
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ARE YOU BEING MISLED BY THE SEASONS?

HAVE YOU EVER WONDERED...

How can I be confident my interpretation of statistics is not misleading?

Am I using the right estimates in making important decisions?

What does seasonal adjustment mean for me?


CONTENTS




Why seasonally adjust?
Includes: Seasonal patterns; Trend; Residual noise; Irregular events






Which indicator should I use?
Includes: Original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates; Month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter percentage changes; Year apart changes






Revisions to time series estimates
Includes: What revisions are; When original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be revised






Example of a seasonal adjustment
Includes: Original series; Seasonal factors; Seasonally adjusted series; Trend series






Further questions
Includes: Other questions on seasonal adjustment; Further resources; Contacting the Time Series Analysis section


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