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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Oct 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/11/2004   
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This electronic release contains modelled estimates of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia based on passport transactions for the current month and passenger card disaggregations from earlier months. There is no printed publication available for this release, however, it is closely related to the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).


NOTES

Forthcoming changes

The format of Table 2: Short-term Movement, Visitor Arrivals - Country of Residence will change in the November 2004 issue to be released on 15 December. The list of countries will remain unchanged. The time periods in the columns will include:

  • for trend estimates, the current and previous months, the percentage monthly change and the percentage change from the same month last year;
  • for seasonally adjusted estimates, the current and previous months, and percentage monthly change; and
  • for original estimates: the current month.
Longer time series will be available from accompanying spreadsheets released with the Main Features. Original estimates calendar and financial year totals will be available in the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0). These changes are consistent with the principles set out in Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for October 2004 will be released on 13 December 2004.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Ian Appleby at ian.appleby@abs.gov.au or telephone (02) 6252 6141.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for October 2004 (437,900 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with September 2004 (437,100 movements). This followed increases of 0.4% for August and 0.3% for September 2004.


According to trend estimates, this is the seventh consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.1% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 434,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2004, representing a decrease of 0.1% compared with September 2004 (435,000 movements). This followed decreases of 0.1% for August and 0.4% for September 2004.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

There were an estimated 449,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2004. Arrivals from New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (22% or 98,000 movements), followed by Japan (14% or 60,800 movements), the United Kingdom (13% or 58,500 movements) and the United States of America (7% or 33,600 movements).

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - October 2004

Oct 04
Sep 04 to Oct 04
Oct 03 to Oct 04
'000
% change
% change

Trend
437.9
0.2
2.8
Seasonally adjusted
434.5
-0.1
. .
Original
449.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence: Original

Calendar year
Financial year
2004
2002
2003
2002-03
2003-04
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Country of residence
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
790.1
839.1
793.1
926.1
108.1
96.9
107.9
98.0
Total
905.0
956.5
904.7
1,047.0
118.4
105.4
117.5
107.8
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
134.8
137.9
134.0
141.0
11.6
10.3
11.2
15.2
Netherlands
53.0
51.0
52.1
49.4
4.9
2.7
3.9
5.2
Sweden
30.9
31.8
31.8
32.8
1.7
1.2
2.1
3.1
Switzerland
41.5
40.9
41.2
41.5
2.8
1.7
3.8
3.7
United Kingdom
642.7
672.8
644.2
686.4
45.3
39.4
40.4
58.5
Total
1,074.6
1,113.0
1,070.9
1,138.8
85.0
67.5
75.0
103.3
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
43.3
41.3
42.5
43.7
5.1
5.7
3.8
4.2
Total
104.1
97.9
98.1
106.5
10.2
10.8
8.5
10.3
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
51.2
52.6
50.1
56.4
11.9
9.0
4.1
4.3
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
89.4
90.3
86.9
91.5
9.5
5.9
5.1
4.7
Malaysia
159.0
155.6
142.4
175.3
13.1
13.6
10.4
11.6
Philippines
28.5
27.0
25.4
30.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.9
Singapore
286.9
253.4
261.6
252.6
16.9
14.5
15.7
21.1
Thailand
82.7
73.2
75.5
78.8
7.2
5.3
7.1
8.0
Total
673.8
625.3
617.7
654.1
51.3
43.3
42.2
50.8
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
190.0
176.1
177.1
216.9
26.4
17.6
16.4
20.1
Japan
715.5
627.7
658.6
687.5
57.0
66.6
58.0
60.8
Korea
189.7
207.3
195.8
215.8
19.9
14.9
13.8
18.2
Taiwan
97.4
87.7
80.8
103.9
10.9
8.4
5.2
6.4
Total
1,345.5
1,230.0
1,254.8
1,358.5
128.8
118.1
103.3
117.2
AMERICAS
Canada
90.9
87.9
86.5
92.9
7.7
6.0
5.8
8.2
United States of America
434.5
422.1
423.5
430.1
45.0
34.5
26.4
33.6
Total
556.2
537.5
537.1
551.9
55.3
42.6
34.2
44.2
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
51.0
52.7
47.5
55.1
3.6
3.3
4.1
4.0
Total
67.5
69.2
62.8
72.4
5.4
4.4
4.9
5.0
Total(b)
4,841.2
4,745.9
4,655.8
5,057.2
472.0
405.8
395.6
449.6

(a) Data for the current month are statististically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(b) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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