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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Feb 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/04/2004   
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KEY FIGURES


Jan 04
Feb 03
Feb
to Feb
to Feb
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend
428.2
-0.4
. .
Seasonally adjusted
419.7
-1.5
. .
Original
454.8
. .
6.4
Short-term resident departures
Trend
342.2
1.0
. .
Seasonally adjusted
336.1
-2.0
. .
Original
268.2
. .
23.9


Graph - Visitor Arrivals
Graph - Resident Departures


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • Trend estimates in this issue take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraphs 21 and 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
  • The trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for February 2004 (428,200 movements) decreased by 0.4% compared with January 2004 and followed revised decreases of 0.1% for December 2003 and 0.4% for January 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures continued to increase steadily with the trend estimate for February 2004 (342,200 movements) representing an increase of 1.0% compared with the previous month and followed a revised increase of 1.6% for January 2004. A break in the trend series has been introduced from December 2003. See paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of short-term visitor arrivals for February 2004 (419,700 movements) decreased by 1.5% compared with the previous month and followed revised decreases of 0.2% for December 2003 and 2.5% for January 2004.
  • Short-term departures of Australian residents for February 2004 (336,100 movements) decreased by 2.0% compared with January 2004 and followed increases of 7.2% for December 2003 and 1.3% for January 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms there were 454,800 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in February 2004, an increase of 6.4% compared with February 2003 (427,500 movements).
  • There were 268,200 short-term departures of Australian residents, an increase of 23.9% compared with February 2003 (216,400 movements).


NOTES

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for March 2004 will be available on the ABS website http://www.abs.gov.au on 15 April 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the home page and selecting Main Features (located under Statistical Products and Services) and then 34. Migration. Select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).


DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see the appendix of this publication.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and/or Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Trend estimates for short-term resident departures have been revised following recent observations of a recovery in short-term resident departures to Indonesia. See paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

ABBREVIATIONS

ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics
ASCCSSAustralian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics
DIMIADepartment of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs
OADOverseas Arrivals and Departures Collection
SARSpecial Administrative Region
TRIPSTravel and Immigration Processing System


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.


MAIN FEATURES

INCREASING TRAVEL BETWEEN NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA

In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand in February 2004 were 30% higher compared with February 2003. December 2003 and January 2004 also recorded relatively large increases compared with the same month a year earlier (up 21% and 14% respectively). However, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates indicate the presence of volatility in the original series, with calendar related and irregular effects influencing the series.

The trend series reveals the underlying behaviour of the series without the influence of seasonal or irregular effects. According to trend estimates, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand have recorded steady monthly increases since March 2003. This growth has not been as strong or as rapid as that suggested by the original series. Similar trends have also been observed for short-term resident departures to New Zealand.


Graph - Short Term Visitor Arrivlas, New Zealand


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

The top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2004 and the percentage and numeric change compared with February 2003 are presented in the table below.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries-February 2004

February
February
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

United Kingdom
75.2
70.9
4.3
6.1
Japan
62.7
58.9
3.8
6.4
New Zealand
59.0
45.5
13.5
29.8
United States of America
42.1
40.3
1.8
4.5
China
23.4
27.0
-3.6
-13.5
Korea
19.4
17.9
1.5
8.2
Singapore
17.9
22.0
-4.1
-18.8
Germany
15.6
13.8
1.7
12.3
Malaysia
14.8
15.1
-0.3
-2.1
Canada
11.6
10.2
1.4
13.8



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a sharp increase in the number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia in December 2003 (up 60% or 10,900 movements) compared with the previous month. Figures for January and February 2004 remained at this relatively high level, indicating a return to the trend levels experienced prior to the Bali bombing (12 October 2002). As a result of this change, a break in the trend series has been introduced from December 2003. Please see paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Graph - Short Term Resident Departures, Indonesia


The top ten destinations of short-term resident departures for February 2004 and the percentage and numeric change compared with February 2003 are presented in the table below.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations-February 2004

February
February
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
67.9
55.5
12.4
22.4
United States of America
19.8
16.9
2.9
17.4
Indonesia
19.8
7.8
12.0
154.7
United Kingdom
17.8
13.8
4.0
29.2
Thailand
12.9
7.3
5.6
77.8
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
11.5
10.8
0.8
7.0
Malaysia
10.0
5.7
4.3
74.3
Singapore
9.9
10.2
-0.3
-3.0
Fiji
9.6
6.1
3.5
58.0
China
9.5
8.9
0.6
7.1



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not consider whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 8,820 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2004, an increase of 21% compared with February 2003 (7,310 movements). Settlers born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (16%) of permanent arrivals for February 2004. The second largest proportion of settlers were born in the United Kingdom (15%).

Statistics on OAD relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,590 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during February 2004, an increase of 15% compared with February 2003 (3,980 movements).

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