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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/01/2005   
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NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES

Nov 04
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 03 to Nov 04
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
444.0
0.6
4.0
Seasonally adjusted
453.1
4.1
. .
Original
479.9
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
376.2
1.4
18.8
Seasonally adjusted
383.7
3.0
. .
Original
338.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



NOVEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2004 (444,000 movements) increased by 0.6% compared with October 2004. This followed monthly increases of 0.6% each for September and October 2004.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.0% higher than in November 2003 and 4.5% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (424,900 movements).
  • During November 2004, short-term resident departures (376,200 movements) increased by 1.4% compared with the previous month and followed increases of 1.1% for September and 1.2% for October 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures have recorded steady growth over the past year. Compared with November 2003 (316,600 movements), short-term resident departures are up by 18.8% and up by 31.9% from when they last troughed in April 2003 (285,200 movements). These increases were affected by a break in the trend series.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2004 (453,100 movements) increased by 4.1% compared with October 2004. Short-term visitor arrivals for September and October months were stable.
  • Short-term resident departures for November 2004 (383,700 movements) increased by 3.0% compared with October 2004 and followed increases of 4.4% for September and 0.7% for October 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 479,900 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 338,600 short-term resident departures from Australia during November 2004.


NOTES


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for December 2004 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 18 January 2005. These estimates can be accessed at Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

  • This issue is the first release of this publication to only be as a Portable Document Format file (i.e. Adobe Acrobat .pdf format) on this site: select AusStats then Publications & Data and then Publications. The decision to cease pre-printed releases was made to make this monthly publication available at an earlier date.
  • From this issue ABS has introduced an improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates. Please see paragraph 17 of the Explanatory Notes for further information.


FORTHCOMING CHANGES

New standard errors


A new set of standard errors will apply to sampled estimates in this publication from the January 2005 issue. This is because the sample for short-term movements has been increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors. New standard errors will be presented in the Standard Errors section from the January 2005 issue.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami


The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami may impact on overseas visitor arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries. However, it is not possible as yet to gauge the magnitude of this impact or its duration. There may also be breaks in some trend series as a result of this event.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia have increased by 4.0% since November 2003. Monthly increases have been recorded since April 2004 and since June 2004 the increase has been constant at 0.6% each month.


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2004. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with October 2004 and November 2003.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - November 2004

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 03 to Nov 04
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
87.6
87.4
83.2
-0.2
16.5
Japan
65.6
65.4
66.4
2.7
4.8
United Kingdom
53.8
52.0
64.9
-1.6
-7.1
United States of America
34.5
34.0
34.1
-2.0
-2.7
Singapore
22.4
23.7
34.0
2.9
2.2
China
22.3
(a)np
24.3
3.9
18.6
Korea
18.9
19.1
21.2
1.1
2.5
Malaysia
15.8
17.0
19.8
1.3
3.5
Germany
11.8
11.4
14.0
-
-
Canada
8.0
8.5
10.4
-2.1
3.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have increased by 18.8% between November 2003 and November 2004 and have recorded consecutive monthly increases during the period. However, this increase was affected by a break in the trend series in December 2003. See paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes linked to this Main Features.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during November 2004. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with October 2004 and November 2003.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - November 2004

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 03 to Nov 04
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
68.7
65.4
58.6
0.1
13.3
United States of America
31.0
32.1
29.4
-0.1
18.2
Indonesia
26.2
29.5
24.5
1.2
(a)np
United Kingdom
31.3
32.3
20.4
0.9
10.9
Hong Kong
14.2
15.2
18.1
4.2
19.5
Thailand
16.7
17.0
16.2
3.6
14.7
Fiji
16.0
17.0
15.1
3.2
23.0
China
17.3
17.8
14.4
2.2
43.5
Singapore
14.2
15.0
14.2
2.6
12.5
Malaysia
13.5
16.4
13.0
6.2
21.5

(a) Not available for publication, due to a break in the trend series from December 2003. See paragraph 22 of the Explanatory Notes linked to this Main Features.



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL BETWEEN JAPAN AND AUSTRALIA

According to trend estimates, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Japan represented 15% of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in November 2004. Recent trend estimates show that movements of short-term visitors from Japan have been increasing since June 2004 and are currently 5% higher than in November 2003.


In original terms, 82% of the Japanese visitors to Australia in November 2004 stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 54% of all short-term visitor arrivals. The median age of Japanese visitors was 32 years (40 years for all visitors) and the median duration of stay was 6 days (10 days for all visitors).

JAPAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: JAPAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



Trend estimates show that the number of short-term residents departing Australia for Japan in November 2004 represented only 2% of all short-term resident departures. Since November 2001 the trend, while showing fluctuations, has been upwards. In October and November 2004 there were decreases in the number of departures to Japan indicating that these movements may have plateaued. Movements from November 2003 to November 2004 increased by 19%.


In original terms, 41% of Australian residents departing to Japan in November 2004 stated business as the main reason for journey while a further 20% stated holiday. Of all short-term resident departures, 18% stated business and 42% stated holiday.

JAPAN, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: JAPAN, Short-term Resident Departures




PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 9,470 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during November 2004, an increase of 8.4% when compared with November 2003 (8,740 movements). Settlers born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion (15%) followed by New Zealand (12%) and China (8%).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).


There were 4,600 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during November 2004, an increase of 9% when compared with November 2003 (4,200 movements).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. For more detail please see the Standard Errors document linked to this Main Features.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected Source Countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the impact of the 2003 Rugby World Cup on arrivals from the United Kingdom in the later half of 2003, and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

The recent upward trend in departures of Australian residents to the United States of America appears to have peaked and has been in decline since July 2004. While departures to the United Kingdom appeared to be declining in recent months, trend figures for October and November 2004 are again showing an increase in movements.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom


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