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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/08/2006   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

Jun Qtr 06
Mar Qtr 06 to Jun Qtr 06
Jun Qtr 05 to Jun Qtr 06
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
18 756
2.6
21.3
Buildings & structures
7 262
3.9
34.6
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 399
1.1
13.1
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
18 577
1.1
18.4
Buildings & structures
7 404
7.2
40.7
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 261
-0.6
8.4

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



JUNE KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure increased by 2.6% in the June quarter 2006. It rose by 1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms after a small increase ( 0.6%) in the March quarter 2006.
  • A seasonally adjusted increase in building and structures (up 7.2%) has been the source of growth this quarter, mainly driven by Mining.
  • Seasonally adjusted expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery declined 0.6% this quarter, mainly due to falls in Mining and Manufacturing which were only partially offset by an increase in Other Selected Industries.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the seventh estimate for 2005-06 and the third estimate for 2006-07.
  • The final estimate for 2005-06 is $72,112m which is 25.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05. The increase since 2004-05 is mainly driven by mining which has increased by 76.2%. The estimate has increased slightly compared to Estimate 6 for 2005-06.
  • Estimate 3 for 2006-07 is $63,525m, 11.4% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2005-06 and 10.4% higher than Estimate 2 for 2006-07. Mining, Manufacturing and Other Selected Industries have all increased compared to Estimate 2.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
September 2006 30 November 2006
December 2006 1 March 2007



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new base year, 2004-05, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2004-05, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the level of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.


This issue includes revisions to the September qtr 2005, December qtr 2005 and March qtr 2006 estimates. In summary the revisions are, in original, current price terms, as follows:

Sept qtr 05 $m
Dec qtr 05 $m
Mar qtr 06 $m

Building
133.0
449.4
302.0
Equipment
-
-406.8
-338.8
Total
133.0
42.6
-36.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


A significant contributor to the revisions has been the identification of some misreporting of expenditure by asset type, resulting in a reclassification of expenditure from equipment to buildings.The revisions in total are not so significant.


The equipment component of this series is used as an input in the compilation of the national accounts estimates of private gross fixed capital formation - machinery and equipment, whereas the estimates in the national accounts for private gross fixed capital formation - non dwelling construction are compiled using other data sources. Hence the above revisions will also result in revisions to the national accounts estimates of gross fixed capital formation. It is anticipated that the likely effect of the equipment revisions on the seasonally adjusted GDP chain volume measure of quarterly growth for December quarter 2005 will be less than 0.1 percentage points, with an insignificant impact on the quarterly GDP growth rate for March quarter 2006.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Heather Jackson on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.



ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN VOLUME TERMS


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total capital expenditure in the June quarter increased by 2.6%, slightly weaker than the previous six quarters of growth. Seasonally adjusted there was stronger growth this quarter, up 1.1%, compared to the previous quarter. This was driven by buildings and structures which increased by 7.2% this quarter and slightly offset by equipment, plant and machinery that fell a modest 0.6%.

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure, CVM



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased 3.9% this quarter, the growth rate slowing slightly after four quarters of very strong growth. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate increased 7.2% following weaker growth last quarter. The increase this quarter is mainly driven by Mining.

Graph: Building, CVM



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery increased 1.1% in the June quarter 2006, following growth of 1.8% in the March quarter. The rate of growth in the past two quarters has eased in comparison to the previous five quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate has decreased slightly by 0.6%, the second consecutive quarter of decline, following three quarters of growth. Equipment in Mining, seasonally adjusted, has had a large fall of 20.9% and Manufacturing has fallen by 4.3%. These falls have been partially offset by Other Selected Industries which rose by 5.5%.

Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery, CVM



MINING

The trend estimate for Mining increased 9.5% this quarter, which is slightly weaker than the previous four quarters of very strong growth. In seasonally adjusted terms, the growth of 3.8%, was weaker than the previous four quarters and this is attributed to the large fall in equipment of 20.9%.

Graph: Mining, CVM



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimate has fallen this quarter by 4.4%, which is the second consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate has fallen by 5.7%, which is the third consecutive fall. Estimates for both asset types have declined, with Equipment falling by 4.3% and Building by 8.6%.

Graph: Manufacturing, CVM



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The trend estimate for Other Selected Industries has increased 2.3%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate has increased by 2.3% with both asset types contributing to the increase.

Graph: Other Selected Industries, CVM



ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

Diagram: chartcompest



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 is $72,112m which is 25% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05. The increase since 2004-05 is mainly driven by mining which has increased by 76%. The estimate has increased slightly compared to Estimate 6 for 2005-06.


Estimate 3 for 2006-07 is $63,525m which is 11% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2005-06 and 10% higher than Estimate 2 for 2006-07. Mining, Manufacturing and Other Selected Industries have all increased compared to Estimate 2.

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure



BUILDING AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 has increased slightly compared to Estimate 6, and is 48% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2004-05. The increase in Estimate 7 from the previous financial year is driven by Mining which had an increase of 105% and growth in Other Selected Industries.


Estimate 3 for 2006-07 is 17% higher than Estimate 2, and 28% higher than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. The increase in Estimate 3 compared to Estimate 2, is due to increases across all broad industry groups.

Graph:Buildings and Structures



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 is 1% higher than Estimate 6 and 14% higher than the comparable Estimate for 2004-05. The largest increase from the previous financial year was recorded by Mining (32%) with Manufacturing and Other Selected Industries also increasing.


Estimate 3 for 2006-07 is 5% higher than Estimate 2, and is relatively unchanged than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. The increase from Estimate 2 is driven by Other Selected Industries and is spread across all component industries.

Graph: Equipment, plant and machinery



MINING

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 for Mining has risen 2% compared to Estimate 6, and is 76% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05. This is driven by an increase in Building expenditure.


Estimate 3 for Mining for 2006-07 is 7% higher than Estimate 2 and 43% higher than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. Buildings and structures expenditure contributed to most of the increase since Estimate 2.

Graph: Mining



MANUFACTURING

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 is slightly lower than Estimate 6, and 22% higher than Estimate 7 for 2004-05. Both asset types have had increases since the corresponding financial year.


Estimate 3 for 2006-07 has increased 8% since Estimate 2 but is 13% less than the comparable estimate for 2005-06.This fall is mainly attributed to equipment expenditure.

Graph: Manufacturing



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 7 for 2005-06 has increased 2% since Estimate 6 and is 11% higher than Estimate 7 for 2004-05. A decrease in building and structures has partially offset an increase in equipment, plant and machinery since Estimate 6.


Estimate 3 for 2006-07 is 13% higher than Estimate 2 and 9% higher than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. Both asset types have increased since Estimate 2, and this is driven by all components of Other Selected Industries.

Graph: Other Selected Industries

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