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3311.6.55.001 - Demography, Tasmania, 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/02/2005   
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POPULATION
BIRTHS AND CONFINEMENTS
DEATHS
MIGRATION
MARRIAGES
DIVORCES

NOTES


OVERVIEW

This electronic product provides a demographic overview of Tasmania, 2003. It contains summary tables and commentary on trends in the components of population change including births, deaths and migration. Marriages, divorces, estimated resident population and various demographic rates are also presented. Population and migration data are for the year ended 30 June 2003, while births, deaths, marriages and divorces data are for the year ended 31 December 2003.

    For comparisons between the states and territories of Australia, please refer to Demography, Australia, 2003 (cat. no. 3311.0.55.001). Demography publications for each state and territory can be accessed from the following links:
    Additional state demographic data are also available from publications and data cubes linked at the foot of this page. The Demography Theme Page provides links to other Australian as well as international demographic statistics. The National Regional Profiles provide economic and social statistics of Statistical Local Areas and Local Government Areas of Australia.

    INQUIRIES

    For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Keith Churchill on Hobart (03) 6222 5832.



    SUMMARY COMMENTARY


    POPULATION

    At 30 June 2003 the Tasmanian resident population was estimated to have reached 477,300 persons (235,500 males and 241,800 females). Tasmania's resident population represented 2.4% of Australia's resident population.


    The resident population increase of 4,700 during 2002-03 was composed of a natural increase of 1,800 persons, net overseas migration gain of 1,000 persons, and a net interstate migration gain of 1,900 persons. Tasmania's positive net interstate migration gain was the first annual gain since 1990-91. Tasmania and Queensland were the only states or territories to experience positive net interstate migration in 2002-03.

    POPULATION COMPONENTS, Tasmania - 1993-2003
    Graph: POPULATION COMPONENTS, Tasmania—1993-2003



    The annual population growth rate in Tasmania in 2002-03 was 1.0%, marginally lower than the national level (1.2%). Historically, Tasmania's population growth mirrored national levels during the 1950s but generally slipped to lower levels thereafter. The last annual observation to approximate national population growth was in 1990-91.


    Within Tasmania in 2002-03, all Statistical Divisions grew in population. Greater Hobart increased by 2,000 persons (1.0%); Northern by 1,400 persons (1.1%); Southern by 320 persons (0.9%); and Mersey-Lyell by 730 persons (0.7%).


    At Local Government Area (LGA) level, 24 of Tasmania's 29 municipalities experienced population growth in 2002-03. Launceston the state's largest municipality had the largest growth (760 persons or 1.2%), followed by three southern municipalities, Kingborough (620 persons or 2.1%), Hobart (590 persons or 1.2%) and Glenorchy (460 persons or 1.0%). Municipalities experiencing the fastest growth were George Town, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Kingborough and Latrobe. West Coast had the state's largest population decline of -160 persons or -3.0%.


    Persons aged under 15 years comprised 20.4% of the Tasmanian population at 30 June 2003, compared with 22.3% in 1993 and 25.2% in 1983.


    Conversely the proportion of the Tasmanian population aged 65 years and over has increased from 10.4% at 30 June 1983, to 12.3% in 1993 and 14.2% in 2003. The proportion of persons aged 85 years and over increased from 1.0% in 1993 to 1.6% in 2003. Females comprised 55.6% of persons aged 65 years and over and 69.1% of persons aged 85 years and over at 30 June 2003.

    POPULATION, Tasmania - Selected years at 30 June

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Estimated resident population('000)
    471.7
    472.6
    477.3
    Components of population change(a)
    Natural increase(b)no.
    3,138
    2,022
    1,784
    Net overseas migration(c)no.
    103
    307
    1,014
    Net interstate migrationno.
    -1,494
    -1,512
    1,895
    Total increase(d)no.
    1,833
    817
    4,693
    Annual growth rate%
    0.39
    0.17
    0.99
    Estimated resident households(e)('000)
    178.0
    (f)nya
    (f)nya

    nya not yet available
    (a) From previous year.
    (b) Births and deaths figures used to compile natural increase for population estimates are based on year of occurrence and may differ from births and deaths data based on year of registration displayed in the Births and Confinements and Deaths sections of this table.
    (c) Until 1997 net overseas migration data for Jervis Bay, Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Island were randomly allocated to the states and territories. For these years the sum of the components may therefore not equal net overseas migration.
    (d) Includes intercensal discrepancy not accounted for by natural increase and net migration.
    (e) 1993 figures are based on 1996 census, figures from 1997 on are based on 2001 census.
    (f) Data is under review.



    BIRTHS AND CONFINEMENTS

    In 2003 there were 5,700 confinements resulting in 5,800 live births registered to mothers usually resident in Tasmania. There were 90 confinements which resulted in a multiple birth.


    Birth registrations were 4.2% lower than in 2002 (6,000) and 15.8% lower than in 1993 (6,800). Nationally, births in 2003 achieved the same level as in 2002, and were 3.5% lower than in 1993. There were 3,000 male births and 2,800 female births registered in Tasmania in 2003, resulting in a sex ratio of 107.7 males per 100 females.


    There were 3,100 nuptial births and 2,600 exnuptial births in Tasmania in 2003. Exnuptial births represented 46% of all births, similar to the 2002 proportion (46.8%). Ten years ago exnuptial births accounted for 31.5% of all Tasmanian births, and in 1983 only 15.8%.


    Indigenous births are defined as births in which one or both parents identified as being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin. In 2003 there were 380 indigenous births registered to parents who were usually resident in Tasmania representing 6.5% of all births.


    Tasmania's total fertility rate (TFR) (the average number of children a female would bear during her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates) in 2003 was 1.89, significantly above the Australian rate of 1.75. Since 1975, TFRs have been below the rate of 2.1 babies per woman which is the rate required for natural replacement of the population.

    TOTAL FERTILITY RATES(a), Australia and Tasmania - 1993-2003
    Graph: TOTAL FERTILITY RATES(a), Australia and Tasmania—1993-2003



    The Tasmanian net reproduction rate (the average number of daughters a woman would bear during her reproductive lifetime if she was subject to current female age-specific fertility rates and to prevailing mortality rates) in 2003 was 0.90, below the replacement level of one.


    The upward trend towards parents having children later in life continued in 2003. The median age of Tasmanian mothers reached a high of 31.0 years and fathers 33.2 years. The 25-29 year age group has had the highest age-specific fertility rate of 118.4 babies per 1,000 women in 2003. The 30-34 year age group with 108.1 children per 1,000 women was the next most fertile age group, followed by the 20-24 year age group with 74.1 children per 1,000 women. Twenty years ago in Tasmania, the 25-29 year age group was still the most fertile with 151.8 children per 1,000 women followed by the 20-24 year age group (121.8) and 30-34 year age group (71.9).


    Nationally the most fertile age group in 2003 was the 30-34 year age group (112.5 children per 1,000 women) followed by the 25-29 year age group (102.9). The 30-34 year age group became the most fertile group in 2000. The percentage contribution of age-specific fertility rates to the total fertility rate (or the distribution of births by age group of mother) in 2003 for both Tasmania and Australia is shown in the following graph.

    CONTRIBUTION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES TO TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Australia and Tasmania - 2003
    Graph: CONTRIBUTION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES TO TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Australia and Tasmania—2003


    BIRTHS AND CONFINEMENTS(a), Tasmania - Selected years

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Live births
    Numberno.
    6,835
    6,003
    5,752
    Crude birth rate(b)rate
    14.5
    12.7
    12.1
    Total fertility rate(c)rate
    1.921
    1.969
    1.892
    Net reproduction rate(d)rate
    0.921
    0.974
    0.903
    All confinements
    Numberno.
    6,773
    5,914
    5,663
    Median age of mother(e)years
    27.9
    28.9
    29.3
    Nuptial confinements
    Numberno.
    4,636
    3,134
    3,042
    Median age of mother(e)years
    29.0
    30.7
    31.0
    Median age of father(e)years
    31.4
    32.8
    33.2
    First nuptial confinements
    Numberno.
    2,079
    1,275
    1,198
    Median age of mother(e)years
    27.6
    29.6
    29.9

    (a) Compiled on year of registration basis.
    (b) Births per 1,000 population.
    (c) Births per woman.
    (d) Daughters surviving to reproductive age per woman.
    (e) The age at which half the population is older and half is younger.



    DEATHS

    In 2003 there were 4,000 registered deaths of persons usually resident in Tasmania, similar to the number of deaths registered in 2002 but 9% higher than the 3,600 deaths in 1993. There were 2,000 male deaths and 1,900 female deaths, resulting in a sex ratio of 104.9 male deaths per 100 female deaths, lower than the national sex ratio of 106.8 male deaths per female deaths.


    The crude death rate (CDR) increased from 7.7 deaths per 1,000 population in 1993, to 8.3 deaths per 1,000 population in 2003 but was marginally lower than the 8.4 deaths per 1,000 population in 2002. The standardised death rate (SDR), which eliminates the effect of the changing age structure of population over time by relating all deaths to a standard 2001 Australian population, decreased over the same time period. In 2003 the SDR for Tasmania was 7.4 deaths per 1,000 population, falling from 8.6 deaths per 1,000 population in 1993.


    While CDRs for males have been slightly higher than those for females in Tasmania over the past decade, SDRs reveal that rates for males have remained substantially higher in proportion to female rates. In 2003 the male SDR was 9.1 deaths per 1,000 standard population (11.0 in 1993) compared to the female SDR of 6.0 per 1,000 standard population (6.9 in 1993).


    The life expectancy at birth in 2003 (based on 2001-2003 age specific death experience) for Tasmanian usual residents was 76.6 years for males and 81.4 years for females, similar to that experienced in 2002. Tasmania's life expectancy at birth remains below the national figure by 1.2 years for males and 1.4 years for females. Compared to 10 years ago, Tasmania's life expectancy at birth improved by 2.7 years for males and 1.2 years for females.

    DEATHS(a), Tasmania - Selected years

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Numberno.
    3,637
    3,979
    3,965
    Crude death rate(b)rate
    7.7
    8.4
    8.3
    Standardised death rate(c)rate
    8.6
    7.6
    7.4
    Median age at death(d)
    Malesyears
    73.1
    76.2
    75.9
    Femalesyears
    79.0
    81.9
    82.1
    Infant deaths
    Numberno.
    40
    37
    40
    Infant mortality rate(e)rate
    5.9
    6.2
    7.0
    Life expectancy at birth
    Malesyears
    73.9
    76.5
    76.6
    Femalesyears
    80.2
    81.3
    81.4

    (a) Compiled on year of registration basis.
    (b) Deaths per 1,000 population.
    (c) Deaths per 1,000 standard population. Standardised death rates have been revised using the 2001 standard population.
    (d) The age at which there are as many people dying above the age as there are below it.
    (e) Deaths per 1,000 live births.



    MIGRATION

    For the year ending 30 June 2003, more people migrated to Tasmania from overseas than left the state with an intention of staying overseas for a period of 12 months or more. Net overseas migration added 1,000 persons to the Tasmanian population during 2002-03, an increase significantly above recent experience which averaged a net increase of 210 persons over the previous five years. There were 3,100 arrivals from overseas and 2,200 departures for destinations outside Australia. During the 1990s annual overseas arrivals to Tasmania remained around the 2,000 person level, but the latest figure represents a substantial increase and one greater than that experienced in 2001-02 when 2,700 people arrived from overseas.


    Tasmanian net interstate migration in the year ending 30 June 2003 also made a positive contribution of 1,900 persons to population growth. Of the 16,000 persons who changed their usual residence from interstate to Tasmania (arrivals), 4,400 persons (27.3%) came from Victoria, 4,200 persons (26.4%) came from New South Wales, and 3,700 persons (23.2%) from Queensland. The destination of 14,100 Tasmanians moving elsewhere within Australia included 4,300 persons (30.7%) moving to Victoria, 4,100 persons (28.8%) to Queensland, 2,600 persons (18.5%) to New South Wales and 1,400 persons (10.1%) to Western Australia.


    Tasmania gained population from each state and territory with one exception, Queensland, where 350 more Tasmanians left for Queensland than Queenslanders arrived in Tasmania, in the year ending 30 June 2003. By far the largest net increase in the Tasmanian population was from New South Wales with 1,600 persons. Net movers from Western Australia (320 persons) and South Australia (200 persons) were also sources of population growth.

    INTERSTATE MIGRATION MOVEMENTS, Tasmania - at 30 June 2003
    Graph: INTERSTATE MIGRATION MOVEMENTS, Tasmania—at 30 June 2003


    MIGRATION, Tasmania - Selected years at 30 June

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Overseas migration
    Permanent and long-term movement(a)
    Arrivalsno.
    1,979
    2,731
    3,108
    Departuresno.
    1,582
    2,249
    2,213
    Net overseas migration(b)no.
    103
    307
    1,014
    Interstate migration
    Arrivalsno.
    11,151
    12,913
    16,006
    Departuresno.
    12,645
    14,425
    14,111
    Net Interstate migrationno.
    -1,494
    -1,512
    1,895

    (a) Based on stated intention on arrival or departure.
    (b) Figures for year ending 30 June 1993 include an adjustment for category jumping. For years ending 30 June 2002 and 2003, figures have been adjusted for changes in traveller intention and multiple mover error.



    MARRIAGES

    There were 2,600 marriages registered in Tasmania in 2003, a similar number to the previous year, and a 14.9% decline from the number of marriages registered in 1993 (3,100). The crude marriage rate in Tasmania in 2003 was 5.4 marriages per 1,000 population, the same as the national rate.


    The long-term trend towards marrying at older ages continued in Tasmania in 2003. The median age at marriage for brides in 2003 was 29.7 years, and for bridegrooms 31.8 years. Over the last decade the median age for brides has increased by 3.7 years and by 3.1 years for grooms. Nationally in 2003 the median age of brides was 29.1 years and for bridegrooms 31.2 years.


    In Tasmania in 2003, there were 1,600 registered marriages (61.0%) where neither party had been previously married. There were 490 marriages (18.7%) in which one party had been married previously, and 530 (20.3%) in which both parties were remarrying. Nationally almost two thirds of marriages involved parties never previously married, and lower proportions where one party (18.5%) or both parties (15.1%) had previously married.


    Tasmania had the highest proportion of couples cohabiting prior to marriage of any state or territory (82.8%) in 2003. Nationally the figure was 74.5% with New South Wales having the lowest proportion at 70.5%.


    Civil celebrants continued to perform an increasing proportion of marriages in 2003 accounting for 1,700 or almost two thirds of Tasmanian marriages. In 1993, only 47.1% of Tasmanian marriages were performed by civil celebrants. Nationally civil celebrants performed 56.6% of marriages in 2003.

    MARRIAGES, Tasmania - Selected years

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Number registeredno.
    3,055
    2,605
    2,599
    Crude marriage rate(a)rate
    6.5
    5.5
    5.4
    Median age at marriage(b)
    Bridegroomyears
    28.6
    31.6
    31.8
    Brideyears
    26.0
    29.1
    29.7

    (a) Marriages per 1,000 population.
    (b) The age at which there are as many people marrying above the age as there are below it.



    DIVORCES

    In 2003 there were 1,300 divorces granted in Tasmania, 50 fewer than in 2002. The Tasmanian crude divorce rate in 2003 was 2.8 per 1,000 population.


    The median duration of marriage while increasing during the 1990s, has settled at approximately 13 years since 2000, being 13.3 years in 2003. The median interval between marriage and final separation was 9.8 years in 2003.

    DIVORCES, Tasmania - Selected Years

    1993
    2002
    2003

    Number grantedno.
    1,465
    1,386
    1,336
    Crude divorce rate(a)rate
    3.1
    2.9
    2.8
    Median duration of marriage
    To separationyears
    8.1
    9.8
    9.8
    To divorceyears
    11.0
    13.0
    13.3

    (a) Divorces per 1,000 population.

    Demographic data for all Tasmanian SLAs are available from the data cube linked at the foot of this page.

    RELATED LINKS

    The following releases provide more specific or in-depth analysis and information.


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