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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Apr 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/06/2004   
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APRIL KEY FIGURES

Apr 04
Mar 04 to Apr 04
Apr 03 to Apr 04
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,500
-0.6
0.3
Total dwelling units
14,156
-0.2
-0.5

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,635
-0.3
3.7
Total dwelling units
14,296
1.5
1.4

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Number of dwelling units approved

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private sector houses approved


APRIL KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 0.2% in April 2004, the seventh consecutive monthly fall.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in April 2004. The trend has fallen for seven consecutive months.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved rose 0.9% in April 2004, following six months of decline.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 1.5%, to 14,296, in April 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3%, to 9,635, in April 2004, following a 2.7% rise in March.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 5.7%, to 4,556, in April 2004, following a 15.4% fall in March.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.7%, to $4,252.3 million in April 2004. Residential building rose 5.0%, to $3,103.3 million, while non-residential building fell 6.2%, to $1,149.0 million.

NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.


REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

2002-03
2003-04

New South Wales
-
35
Victoria
-
-18
Queensland
75
138
South Australia
-
1
Western Australia
-
3
Tasmania
-
65
Northern Territory
-
-
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
TOTAL
75
224

DATA NOTES

Estimates have been included in this issue for three councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Hornsby in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland and Mitcham in South Australia).

A new article Focus on the Victorian Construction Industry is available from the ABS website.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.


SUMMARY COMMENTARY

VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has risen slowly over the last five months, rising 1.9% in April 2004.

Graph: New residential building


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last six months, with the rate of decline slowing over recent months. The trend fell 0.8% in April 2004.

Graph: Alterations and additions to residential buildings


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last eight months. The trend fell 3.3% in April 2004.

Graph: Non-residential building



DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last seven months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 0.2% in April 2004.

Graph: Total dwelling units approved


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last seven months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.6% in April 2004.

Graph: Private sector houses approved


OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved rose 0.9% in April 2004, following six months of decline.

Graph: Other dwellings approved


DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 0.2% in April 2004. The trend fell in Victoria (-0.8%), Queensland (-1.0%), South Australia (-1.2%) and Western Australia (-2.1%), rising in other states and territories.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in April 2004. The trend fell in all states except New South Wales (+0.9%).

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,754
2,729
2,080
630
1,301
263
26
87
8,870
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,495
3,814
3,287
799
1,588
291
92
243
13,609
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-10.0
-11.5
-24.1
-18.2
-25.0
0.8
-50.0
-7.4
-17.0
Total dwelling units (%)
-5.0
0.1
-17.8
-18.7
-24.4
4.7
7.0
20.3
-10.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,924
2,711
2,328
698
1,562
na
na
na
9,635
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,940
3,594
3,423
882
1,742
346
na
na
14,296
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
3.7
-2.5
-1.3
2.3
-2.4
na
na
na
-0.3
Total dwelling units (%)
10.7
-0.4
-1.7
7.7
-16.3
30.1
na
na
1.5

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,870
2,664
2,354
676
1,558
na
na
na
9,500
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,844
3,572
3,446
857
1,900
291
92
232
14,156
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
0.9
-0.9
-1.7
-0.3
-1.2
na
na
na
-0.6
Total dwelling units (%)
2.3
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-2.1
4.8
2.5
9.7
-0.2

na not available

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED

STATE TRENDS

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has now risen for the last three months, following five months of decline. The trend for private sector houses rose in April, following seven months of decline.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - NSW


VICTORIA

The trend estimates for total dwelling units and private sector houses approved in Victoria have both fallen for the last eight months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - VIC


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last seven months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last six months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - Qld


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last seven months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - SA


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last five months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - WA

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES

EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the May seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the April estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the May seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the April estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Apr 2004
(2) falls by 4% on Apr 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
December
9,941
-1.6
9,923
-1.7
9,947
-1.6
2004
January
9,789
-1.5
9,780
-1.4
9,792
-1.6
February
9,658
-1.3
9,681
-1.0
9,650
-1.5
March
9,559
-1.0
9,643
-0.4
9,540
-1.1
April
9,500
-0.6
9,650
0.1
9,456
-0.9
May
-
-
9,685
0.4
9,393
-0.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

OTHER DWELLINGS
Graph: Other dwelling units approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Apr 2004
(2) falls by 13% on Apr 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
December
4,692
-3.4
4,697
-3.5
4,737
-3.2
2004
January
4,578
-2.4
4,588
-2.3
4,608
-2.7
February
4,528
-1.1
4,578
-0.2
4,525
-1.8
March
4,497
-0.7
4,638
1.3
4,463
-1.4
April
4,539
0.9
4,727
1.9
4,396
-1.5
May
-
-
4,842
2.4
4,343
-1.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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