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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Sep 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/10/2004   
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NOTES


DATA NOTES


The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for September 2004 will be released on 15 November 2004.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As of this issue, the following changes have been implemented:

  • The presentation of information on countries is based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries. This replaces the Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics.
  • The time periods presented in table 2 have been revised. This table presents data for the last two calendar and financial years, and the last four months.
  • Table 1 has been revised to include the year apart growth measure for trend estimates, and exclude the year apart growth measure for original estimates. This change has occurred to encourage better use of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) data. For more detail about the appropriate use of OAD statistics see the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


FORTHCOMING CHANGES

As of the October 2004 issue (to be released 17 November 2004) two new AusStats spreadsheets will be available. These tables will present trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals by selected countries of residence.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for September 2004 (437,000 movements) increased by 0.4% compared with August 2004 (435,200 movements). This followed increases of 0.5% for July and 0.4% for August 2004.


According to trend estimates, this is the sixth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.0% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 429,700 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2004, representing a decrease of 1.1% compared with August 2004 (434,700 movements). This followed an increase of 1.3% for July and a decrease of 0.7% for August 2004.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

There were an estimated 390,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2004. Arrivals from New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (27% or 105,600 movements), followed by Japan (14% or 55,400 movements), the United Kingdom (11% or 41,300 movements) and the United States of America (7% or 26,500 movements).

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - September 2004

Sep 04
Aug 04 to Sep 04
Sep 03 to Sep 04
'000
% change
% change

Trend
437.0
0.4
3.0
Seasonally adjusted
429.7
-1.1
. .
Original
390.2
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence: Original

Calendar year
Financial year
2004
2002
2003
2002-03
2003-04
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Country of residence
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
790.1
839.1
793.1
926.1
89.4
108.1
96.9
105.6
Total
905.0
956.5
904.7
1,047.0
97.5
118.4
105.4
115.0
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
134.8
137.9
134.0
141.0
5.9
11.6
10.3
11.1
Netherlands
53.0
51.0
52.1
49.4
2.1
4.9
2.7
4.1
Sweden
30.9
31.8
31.8
32.8
1.6
1.7
1.2
2.2
Switzerland
41.5
40.9
41.2
41.5
1.7
2.8
1.7
3.5
United Kingdom
642.7
672.8
644.2
686.4
30.4
45.3
39.4
41.3
Total
1,074.6
1,113.0
1,070.9
1,138.8
53.7
85.0
67.5
75.5
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
43.3
41.3
42.5
43.7
2.7
5.1
5.7
3.3
Total
104.1
97.9
98.1
106.5
6.5
10.2
10.8
7.9
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
51.2
52.6
50.1
56.4
4.4
11.9
9.0
4.0
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
89.4
90.3
86.9
91.5
8.2
9.5
5.9
5.1
Malaysia
159.0
155.6
142.4
175.3
12.0
13.1
13.6
10.6
Philippines
28.5
27.0
25.4
30.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
Singapore
286.9
253.4
261.6
252.6
26.3
16.9
14.5
15.6
Thailand
82.7
73.2
75.5
78.8
3.7
7.2
5.3
7.1
Total
673.8
625.3
617.7
654.1
54.7
51.3
43.3
42.9
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
190.0
176.1
177.1
216.9
13.9
26.4
17.6
15.5
Japan
715.5
627.7
658.6
687.5
46.1
57.0
66.6
55.4
Korea
189.7
207.3
195.8
215.8
14.2
19.9
14.9
13.9
Taiwan
97.4
87.7
80.8
103.9
10.0
10.9
8.4
5.2
Total
1,345.5
1,230.0
1,254.8
1,358.5
93.0
128.8
118.1
99.4
AMERICAS
Canada
90.9
87.9
86.5
92.9
4.9
7.7
6.0
6.0
United States of America
434.5
422.1
423.5
430.1
40.4
45.0
34.5
26.5
Total
556.2
537.5
537.1
551.9
47.0
55.3
42.6
34.8
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
51.0
52.7
47.5
55.1
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.9
Total
67.5
69.2
62.8
72.4
5.1
5.4
4.4
5.0
Total(b)
4,841.2
4,745.9
4,655.8
5,057.2
367.3
472.0
405.8
390.2

(a) Data for the current month are statististically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(b) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.



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