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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Sep 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/10/2007   
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SEPTEMBER 2007 KEY POINTS

Trend

The September 2007 trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales (87 309) increased 0.2% when compared with the August 2007 estimate. The trend estimate has now been increasing for over 15 consecutive months. When compared to August 2006, the trend estimate increased by 8.0%.

Sports utility vehicles increased 1.4% and other vehicles increased by 0.7% when comparing September 2007 to August 2007. Trend estimates for sports utility vehicles have increased each month for the last 15 months, and other vehicles for the last 12 months. Passenger vehicles, however, have been decreasing for six consecutive months and fell by 0.4% when comparing September 2007 to August 2007.

All vehicle types have recorded increases when compared to the same period 12 months ago. Sports utility vehicles, other vehicles and passenger vehicles rose 18.4%, 12.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

When comparing September 2007 to August 2007, four states and territories showed increases in the trend estimate of total sales of new motor vehicles. Trend estimates in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania each increased by 0.9%, and the ACT increased by 0.3%. The largest decreases were in South Australia and Queensland, both of which fell by 0.4%.

Seasonally adjusted

The September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles (87 750) increased by 1.8% compared with August 2007. All vehicle types showed increases, with other vehicles, sports utility vehicles and passenger vehicles increasing by 3.6%, 2.2% and 1.0% respectively.

When comparing September 2007 to August 2007, five states and territories showed increases in total sales. The largest increase was in Tasmania with an increase of 13.3%, followed by Queensland (4.9%). Total sales decreased in the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales, falling 1.6%, 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

New motor vehicles sales September 2007
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.

Vehicle sales
Seasonally adjusted
26 302
22 765
19 335
4 992
10 444
1 673
814
1 425
87 750
Trend
26 448
22 555
19 027
5 017
10 425
1 624
813
1 400
87 309

Percentage change from previous month
Seasonally adjusted
-0.2
1.9
4.9
-0.9
0.9
13.3
-1.6
3.0
1.8
Trend
-0.1
0.9
-0.4
-0.4
0.9
0.9
-0.2
0.3
0.2

Percentage change from previous year
Seasonally adjusted
5.8
10.2
9.9
-0.8
8.6
0.0
6.1
15.4
7.8
Trend
7.6
11.2
6.7
1.1
8.8
3.0
3.4
15.4
8.0

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUERELEASE DATE
October 200721 November 2007
November 200721 December 2007
December 200722 January 2008
January 200821 February 2008
February 200820 March 2008
March 200821 April 2008


WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


The "what-if" analysis is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%.
2The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%.

The percentage change of 3.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.4%.


Graph: Trend revisions


SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
.
Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales(a), Total Vehicles-LongTerm



Graph: New Motor vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles-Short Term


Table 1: New motor vehicle sales by type of vehicle

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Sports utility vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change passenger vehicles
(%)
Change sports utility vehicles (%)
Change other vehicles (%)
Change total vehicles (%)

Original

2006July
48 798
13 279
15 485
77 562
-14.4
-26.6
-27.4
-19.6
August
52 030
13 539
16 092
81 661
6.6
2.0
3.9
5.3
September
51 388
13 208
15 397
79 993
-1.2
-2.4
-4.3
-2.0
October
50 532
13 921
15 477
79 930
-1.7
5.4
0.5
-0.1
November
51 850
15 193
16 254
83 297
2.6
9.1
5.0
4.2
December
48 348
14 258
14 457
77 063
-6.8
-6.2
-11.1
-7.5
2007January
49 189
14 303
13 444
76 936
1.7
0.3
-7.0
-0.2
February
52 628
14 912
16 200
83 740
7.0
4.3
20.5
8.8
March
57 757
17 589
19 046
94 392
9.7
18.0
17.6
12.7
April
45 109
14 274
16 231
75 614
-21.9
-18.8
-14.8
-19.9
May
52 727
16 912
18 958
88 597
16.9
18.5
16.8
17.2
June
63 768
18 966
22 363
105 097
20.9
12.1
18.0
18.6
July
53 589
15 396
17 306
86 291
-16.0
-18.8
-22.6
-17.9
August
52 748
17 440
18 018
88 206
-1.6
13.3
4.1
2.2
September
50 197
15 874
17 418
83 489
-4.8
-9.0
-3.3
-5.3

Seasonally adjusted

2006July
50 594
14 227
16 061
80 882
5.2
-1.6
1.8
3.3
August
50 780
12 944
16 025
79 749
0.4
-9.0
-0.2
-1.4
September
51 202
14 377
15 852
81 431
0.8
11.1
-1.1
2.1
October
50 513
15 046
16 295
81 854
-1.3
4.7
2.8
0.5
November
50 727
14 855
16 107
81 689
0.4
-1.3
-1.2
-0.2
December
51 634
14 802
15 596
82 032
1.8
-0.4
-3.2
0.4
2007January
54 287
15 385
16 963
86 635
5.1
3.9
8.8
5.6
February
53 654
15 483
17 259
86 396
-1.2
0.6
1.7
-0.3
March
53 773
15 612
17 563
86 948
0.2
0.8
1.8
0.6
April
51 880
16 455
17 470
85 805
-3.5
5.4
-0.5
-1.3
May
52 497
15 697
17 375
85 569
1.2
-4.6
-0.5
-0.3
June
54 068
15 975
17 255
87 298
3.0
1.8
-0.7
2.0
July
53 935
16 038
17 795
87 768
-0.2
0.4
3.1
0.5
August
51 596
16 933
17 661
86 190
-4.3
5.6
-0.8
-1.8
September
52 136
17 309
18 305
87 750
1.0
2.2
3.6
1.8

Trend

2006July
49 919
13 999
16 016
79 934
0.7
0.3
-0.4
0.4
August
50 258
14 096
15 963
80 317
0.7
0.7
-0.3
0.5
September
50 608
14 263
15 940
80 811
0.7
1.2
-0.1
0.6
October
51 085
14 489
15 985
81 559
0.9
1.6
0.3
0.9
November
51 693
14 771
16 136
82 600
1.2
1.9
0.9
1.3
December
52 279
15 075
16 393
83 747
1.1
2.1
1.6
1.4
2007January
52 760
15 345
16 704
84 809
0.9
1.8
1.9
1.3
February
53 143
15 544
17 018
85 705
0.7
1.3
1.9
1.1
March
53 341
15 685
17 265
86 291
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.7
April
53 318
15 839
17 416
86 573
-0.0
1.0
0.9
0.3
May
53 151
15 998
17 497
86 646
-0.3
1.0
0.5
0.1
June
52 985
16 180
17 559
86 724
-0.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
July
52 841
16 407
17 665
86 913
-0.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
August
52 672
16 658
17 802
87 132
-0.3
1.5
0.8
0.3
September
52 485
16 893
17 931
87 309
-0.4
1.4
0.7
0.2

Table 2: New motor vehicle sales by state/territory of registration

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)

Original

2006July
23 688
19 322
17 910
4 794
8 720
1 334
679
1 115
77 562
August
24 223
21 043
18 124
5 107
9 736
1 436
768
1 224
81 661
September
24 267
20 449
17 061
4 903
9 716
1 688
682
1 227
79 993
October
24 379
20 785
16 625
4 781
9 591
1 797
762
1 210
79 930
November
25 418
20 739
18 076
5 116
9 972
1 973
733
1 270
83 297
December
22 927
19 790
16 551
4 700
9 471
1 748
688
1 188
77 063
2007January
24 429
19 000
16 769
4 620
8 929
1 285
651
1 253
76 936
February
25 636
21 510
18 221
5 138
9 625
1 463
771
1 376
83 740
March
29 107
23 408
21 772
5 588
10 530
1 533
978
1 476
94 392
April
23 245
18 833
16 907
4 616
8 701
1 214
883
1 215
75 614
May
26 649
22 151
20 428
5 237
10 172
1 587
973
1 400
88 597
June
31 965
25 491
24 997
6 152
11 995
1 750
1 107
1 640
105 097
July
26 851
21 655
19 600
4 871
9 645
1 561
739
1 369
86 291
August
26 549
22 958
19 145
5 128
10 730
1 481
791
1 424
88 206
September
24 946
21 788
18 025
4 738
10 244
1 684
724
1 340
83 489

Seasonally adjusted

2006July
24 135
20 524
18 234
5 114
9 450
1 509
750
1 166
80 882
August
24 037
20 315
17 391
4 967
9 596
1 435
804
1 204
79 749
September
24 855
20 659
17 597
5 031
9 614
1 673
767
1 235
81 431
October
25 242
20 498
17 936
4 886
9 618
1 633
839
1 202
81 854
November
24 988
19 999
18 424
4 975
9 595
1 667
765
1 276
81 689
December
25 028
20 313
18 611
4 814
9 800
1 414
798
1 254
82 032
2007January
26 718
21 764
19 071
5 391
9 950
1 570
836
1 335
86 635
February
25 945
22 191
19 092
5 192
10 036
1 714
828
1 398
86 396
March
26 594
21 938
19 561
5 256
9 786
1 595
830
1 388
86 948
April
26 280
21 295
19 225
5 229
9 974
1 548
841
1 413
85 805
May
25 937
21 629
19 343
4 979
9 950
1 534
816
1 381
85 569
June
26 799
22 240
19 276
5 077
10 102
1 600
822
1 382
87 298
July
26 714
22 174
19 466
5 147
10 337
1 741
800
1 389
87 768
August
26 350
22 339
18 432
5 035
10 348
1 476
827
1 383
86 190
September
26 302
22 765
19 335
4 992
10 444
1 673
814
1 425
87 750

Trend

2006July
24 101
20 183
17 641
5 080
9 400
1 572
764
1 193
79 934
August
24 305
20 227
17 714
5 016
9 504
1 575
776
1 200
80 317
September
24 583
20 278
17 827
4 963
9 584
1 577
786
1 213
80 811
October
24 914
20 405
18 027
4 948
9 659
1 580
795
1 231
81 559
November
25 283
20 640
18 310
4 989
9 731
1 586
803
1 258
82 600
December
25 628
20 928
18 637
5 059
9 797
1 593
811
1 294
83 747
2007January
25 915
21 239
18 939
5 131
9 848
1 589
818
1 330
84 809
February
26 140
21 532
19 186
5 182
9 891
1 584
826
1 364
85 705
March
26 304
21 734
19 322
5 200
9 930
1 586
830
1 385
86 291
April
26 403
21 845
19 355
5 181
9 975
1 591
829
1 394
86 573
May
26 435
21 905
19 315
5 136
10 040
1 595
825
1 395
86 646
June
26 446
22 005
19 240
5 091
10 132
1 596
821
1 393
86 724
July
26 466
22 176
19 164
5 060
10 234
1 603
817
1 393
86 913
August
26 482
22 361
19 096
5 039
10 333
1 610
815
1 396
87 132
September
26 448
22 555
19 027
5 017
10 425
1 624
813
1 400
87 309

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


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