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The 2016 Australian Census of Population and Housing is introducing several major changes to the data collection operation which aim to significantly reduce collection costs and improve data quality. The new enumeration model adds complexity to the management of field operations, and the data collection operation needs to be guided by predictions of the field resource requirements across different geographic regions. Fundamental to predicting the field resource requirements are predictions of the response rate within fine geographic regions at the different stages of enumeration. This paper proposes a modelling framework to predict Census response rates for fine geographic regions during different phases of the data collection operation. The modelling task is challenging because the changes to the enumeration model are expected to cause significant changes to the respondent behaviour observed in the 2011 Census. This paper presents strategies for estimating model parameters by combining 2011 Census data with other data and assumptions.
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