9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, November 2013 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/12/2013   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The December 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the November 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The December 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the November 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity



What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2013
August
94 311
94 259
94 330
September
94 189
94 317
94 129
October
94 112
94 527
93 908
November
94 039
94 880
93 713