9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Nov 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/12/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.


1 The December 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the November 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


2 The December 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the November 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.


Graph: Trend sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.
2007
August
87 536
87 471
87 568
September
88 096
88 256
87 998
October
88 670
89 165
88 313
November
89 182
90 121
88 515