9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, May 2017 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/06/2017   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The June 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The June 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2017
February
96 961
96 880
96 954
March
97 363
97 581
97 383
April
97 927
98 557
97 903
May
98 534
99 653
98 419