WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
ANALYSIS
This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.
1 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of new motor vehicle sales is higher than the July 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.
2 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of new motor vehicle sales is lower than the July 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.
The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.0%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.
Trend Sensitivity
| |
 | | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| | Trend as published | (1) Rises by 3.0% | (2) Falls by 3.0% |
| | no. | no. | no. |
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| 2010 | | | |
| April | 86 513 | 86 514 | 86 600 |
| May | 86 740 | 86 753 | 86 524 |
| June | 86 802 | 86 870 | 86 114 |
| July | 86 662 | 86 900 | 85 477 |
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