9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jan 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/02/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.


1 The February 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the January 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


2 The February 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the January 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.

2007
October
89 209
89 152
89 252
November
90 181
90 318
90 053
December
91 108
91 584
90 709
2008
January
91 958
92 808
91 159