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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Feb 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The March 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

2 The March 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.0%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.0%
(2) Falls by 3.0%
no.
no.
no.

2008
November
77 272
77 220
77 295
December
76 089
76 218
76 021
2009
January
75 065
75 375
74 724
February
74 254
74 707
73 481




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