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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Apr 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/05/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The May 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the April 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

2 The May 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the April 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.

The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.0%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.0%
(2) Falls by 3.0%
no.
no.
no.

2009
January
74 258
74 197
74 269
February
72 861
73 010
72 819
March
71 590
72 063
71 434
April
70 572
71 379
70 194




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