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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Oct 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/11/2004   
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PUBLICATION

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

Data for sales of new motor vehicles in Tasmania have experienced larger than usual fluctuations in recent months. As such, the seasonally adjusted series for the number of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania is not considered sufficiently reliable for general use and reporting at this time. For further information, see paragraphs 6 to 8 of the Explanatory Notes.


OCTOBER 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles increased 1.2% to 82,234 in October 2004. When compared with October 2003 (77,967) the trend estimate has shown an increase of 5.5%.

Sales of passenger vehicles and sports utility vehicles also recorded increases of 1.2% over the last month. The trend estimate for sales of sports utility vehicles has been increasing continually since September 2003, recording a total increase of 21.4% since this time.

All states and territories recorded increases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in October 2004.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles rose 3.0% to 84,177 in October 2004. Passenger vehicle sales increased 3.7% to 51,978 and sales of sports utility vehicles increased 1.3% to 15,499. Sales of other new vehicles increased 2.5% to 16,700 in October 2004.

NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The November 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the October 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The November 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the October 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 4.0%.



Graph: Trend revisions

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles - Long Term


Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total vehicles - Short Term

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Sports utility vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change passenger vehicles (%)
Change sports utility vehicles (%)
Change other vehicles (%)
Change total vehicles (%)

Original

2003August
49,869
12,181
14,123
76,173
-3.1
-7.0
-5.7
-4.2
September
51,749
11,590
14,452
77,791
3.8
-4.9
2.3
2.1
October
52,180
12,318
14,727
79,225
0.8
6.3
1.9
1.8
November
48,482
12,892
14,738
76,112
-7.1
4.7
0.1
-3.9
December
49,834
13,296
14,656
77,786
2.8
3.1
-0.6
2.2
2004January
40,715
12,291
11,791
64,797
-18.3
-7.6
-19.5
-16.7
February
47,876
12,865
15,136
75,877
17.6
4.7
28.4
17.1
March
53,728
15,005
17,313
86,046
12.2
16.6
14.4
13.4
April
44,079
12,351
14,875
71,305
-18.0
-17.7
-14.1
-17.1
May
46,168
15,052
17,059
78,279
4.7
21.9
14.7
9.8
June
58,284
17,981
20,947
97,212
26.2
19.5
22.8
24.2
July
46,724
14,442
15,869
77,035
-19.8
-19.7
-24.2
-20.8
August
48,649
14,910
15,685
79,244
4.1
3.2
-1.2
2.9
September
49,911
14,715
15,826
80,452
2.6
-1.3
0.9
1.5
October
52,290
13,907
15,470
81,667
4.8
-5.5
-2.2
1.5

Seasonally Adjusted

2003August
51,326
12,748
14,634
78,708
2.2
1.3
-2.1
1.2
September
52,342
12,604
14,921
79,867
2.0
-1.1
2.0
1.5
October
49,012
12,636
15,045
76,693
-6.4
0.3
0.8
-4.0
November
48,456
13,110
14,918
76,484
-1.1
3.8
-0.8
-0.3
December
46,105
13,096
14,907
74,108
-4.9
-0.1
-0.1
-3.1
2004January
49,599
13,944
15,654
79,197
7.6
6.5
5.0
6.9
February
50,391
13,337
16,011
79,739
1.6
-4.4
2.3
0.7
March
49,119
13,504
16,355
78,978
-2.5
1.3
2.1
-1.0
April
48,275
13,295
15,906
77,476
-1.7
-1.5
-2.7
-1.9
May
48,116
14,596
16,201
78,913
-0.3
9.8
1.9
1.9
June
49,903
14,593
15,411
79,907
3.7
0.0
-4.9
1.3
July
47,395
14,697
15,995
78,087
-5.0
0.7
3.8
-2.3
August
48,361
15,024
15,781
79,166
2.0
2.2
-1.3
1.4
September
50,142
15,295
16,300
81,737
3.7
1.8
3.3
3.2
October
51,978
15,499
16,700
84,177
3.7
1.3
2.5
3.0

Trend

2003August
51,138
12,737
14,726
78,601
0.2
-0.3
1.3
0.3
September
50,781
12,734
14,841
78,356
-0.7
0.0
0.8
-0.3
October
50,187
12,830
14,950
77,967
-1.2
0.8
0.7
-0.5
November
49,563
12,991
15,096
77,650
-1.2
1.3
1.0
-0.4
December
49,047
13,167
15,316
77,530
-1.0
1.4
1.5
-0.2
2004January
48,785
13,336
15,584
77,705
-0.5
1.3
1.7
0.2
February
48,779
13,490
15,832
78,101
0.0
1.2
1.6
0.5
March
48,863
13,661
15,984
78,508
0.2
1.3
1.0
0.5
April
48,813
13,873
16,016
78,702
-0.1
1.6
0.2
0.2
May
48,643
14,142
15,961
78,746
-0.3
1.9
-0.3
0.1
June
48,542
14,459
15,908
78,909
-0.2
2.2
-0.3
0.2
July
48,763
14,776
15,929
79,468
0.5
2.2
0.1
0.7
August
49,234
15,049
16,029
80,312
1.0
1.8
0.6
1.1
September
49,817
15,275
16,166
81,258
1.2
1.5
0.9
1.2
October
50,437
15,461
16,336
82,234
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
TAS.(a)
NT
ACT
Aust.
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)

Original

2003August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791
October
25,533
21,337
15,521
5,430
7,487
2,008
607
1,302
79,225
November
25,099
20,254
15,058
5,214
6,925
1,717
630
1,215
76,112
December
25,113
21,071
15,265
5,404
7,161
1,860
593
1,319
77,786
2004January
21,216
16,857
13,403
4,334
6,249
1,193
498
1,047
64,797
February
24,955
19,727
15,901
5,059
7,113
1,297
686
1,139
75,877
March
28,118
22,137
18,611
5,561
8,086
1,343
912
1,278
86,046
April
23,033
19,083
14,831
4,670
6,529
1,229
812
1,118
71,305
May
25,649
20,106
16,373
5,215
7,296
1,513
918
1,209
78,279
June
31,438
23,929
22,026
6,436
8,969
1,982
958
1,474
97,212
July
25,031
19,410
17,141
4,949
7,228
1,449
646
1,181
77,035
August
24,795
20,850
17,269
5,414
7,513
1,585
677
1,141
79,244
September
25,241
20,821
17,188
5,289
8,177
1,855
739
1,142
80,452
October
25,621
22,747
16,079
5,413
7,875
1,981
709
1,242
81,667

Seasonally Adjusted

2003August
26,457
20,527
15,679
5,316
7,244
1,561
608
1,316
78,708
September
26,761
21,251
15,644
5,399
7,259
1,595
680
1,278
79,867
October
24,639
20,126
15,674
5,288
7,165
1,936
628
1,237
76,693
November
24,672
20,378
15,573
5,269
7,096
1,622
650
1,224
76,484
December
24,333
19,994
14,601
5,113
6,939
1,252
629
1,247
74,108
2004January
26,073
20,850
16,243
5,380
7,243
1,532
650
1,226
79,197
February
26,584
20,740
16,487
5,212
7,206
1,541
759
1,210
79,739
March
25,766
20,502
16,753
5,168
7,387
1,418
783
1,201
78,978
April
25,225
20,418
16,196
5,126
7,063
1,482
763
1,203
77,476
May
25,372
20,411
16,775
5,229
7,587
1,554
776
1,209
78,913
June
25,566
20,377
17,647
5,288
7,218
1,862
733
1,216
79,907
July
25,227
19,625
17,171
5,033
7,601
1,552
670
1,208
78,087
August
24,998
20,643
17,118
5,339
7,644
1,549
735
1,140
79,166
September
25,678
20,854
17,479
5,400
8,421
1,881
821
1,203
81,737
October
26,154
23,011
17,430
5,613
7,963
1,987
771
1,248
84,177

Trend

2003August
26,264
20,858
15,456
5,283
7,223
1,591
641
1,285
78,601
September
26,051
20,788
15,483
5,306
7,205
1,612
634
1,277
78,356
October
25,798
20,691
15,500
5,306
7,166
1,605
634
1,267
77,967
November
25,607
20,605
15,552
5,287
7,131
1,572
643
1,253
77,650
December
25,515
20,551
15,663
5,256
7,125
1,520
662
1,238
77,530
2004January
25,538
20,539
15,857
5,231
7,148
1,476
693
1,223
77,705
February
25,629
20,532
16,137
5,211
7,188
1,465
725
1,214
78,101
March
25,697
20,496
16,450
5,196
7,227
1,486
746
1,210
78,508
April
25,644
20,382
16,731
5,181
7,277
1,525
756
1,206
78,702
May
25,487
20,262
16,940
5,176
7,355
1,573
752
1,201
78,746
June
25,344
20,255
17,080
5,198
7,472
1,618
745
1,197
78,909
July
25,340
20,434
17,208
5,250
7,626
1,673
740
1,197
79,468
August
25,431
20,766
17,326
5,317
7,793
1,736
746
1,197
80,312
September
25,563
21,181
17,413
5,391
7,952
1,801
756
1,201
81,258
October
25,716
21,624
17,494
5,465
8,099
1,861
768
1,207
82,234

(a) The ABS advises the seasonally adjusted number of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should not be used in reporting. The small numbers and volatile nature of these data in recent months make reliable estimation of the seasonal pattern very difficult. The seasonally adjusted figures for Australia and other states/territories remain unaffected.

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