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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Dec 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/01/2005   
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PUBLICATION

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

As part of ongoing improvements to the ABS seasonal adjustment methodology, an improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates has been introduced. Corrections for trading day effects are now applied as prior corrections to the original estimates, rather than being applied within the seasonal adjustment process. This is now consistent with treatment of appropriate corrections for large extremes, changes in level, changes in seasonal pattern, Easter, and other effects. This change in methodology has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted and trend estimates. For further information, see paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes.

The seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should be used with caution. The small numbers and volatile nature of these data in recent months make reliable estimation of the seasonal pattern very difficult. The seasonally adjusted figures for Australia and other states/territories remain unaffected. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


DECEMBER 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles decreased 0.8% to 79,632 in December 2004. When compared with December 2003 (77,711) the trend estimate has shown an increase of 2.5%.

The trend estimate for sales of passenger vehicles recorded a decrease of 1.1% over the last month while sales of sports utility vehicles decreased 0.6% and other vehicles increased 0.1%.

When compared with December 2003, the trend estimate of passenger vehicle sales decreased 1.1%, sports utility vehicles increased 12.5%, and other vehicles increased 5.2%.

With the exception of Victoria which recorded an increase of 0.2%, all states and territories recorded decreases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in December 2004 compared to November 2004.


Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles decreased 6.4% to 75,476 in December 2004. Passenger vehicle sales decreased 9.7%, sales of sports utility vehicles decreased 4.5% while sales of other new vehicles increased 2.3% in December 2004 compared to November 2004.

All states and territories recorded decreases in the seasonally adjusted estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles with Western Australia recording the largest decrease (down 13.9%).


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The January 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the December 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The January 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the December 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 4.0%.
Graph - Trend Revisions

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph - New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles - Long Term

Graph - New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles - Short Term




Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Sports utility vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change passenger vehicles (%)
Change sports utility vehicles (%)
Change other vehicles (%)
Change total vehicles (%)

Original

2003October
52,180
12,318
14,727
79,225
0.8
6.3
1.9
1.8
November
48,482
12,892
14,738
76,112
-7.1
4.7
0.1
-3.9
December
49,834
13,296
14,656
77,786
2.8
3.1
-0.6
2.2
2004January
40,715
12,291
11,791
64,797
-18.3
-7.6
-19.5
-16.7
February
47,876
12,865
15,136
75,877
17.6
4.7
28.4
17.1
March
53,728
15,005
17,313
86,046
12.2
16.6
14.4
13.4
April
44,079
12,351
14,875
71,305
-18.0
-17.7
-14.1
-17.1
May
46,168
15,052
17,059
78,279
4.7
21.9
14.7
9.8
June
58,284
17,981
20,947
97,212
26.2
19.5
22.8
24.2
July
46,724
14,442
15,869
77,035
-19.8
-19.7
-24.2
-20.8
August
48,649
14,910
15,685
79,244
4.1
3.2
-1.2
2.9
September
49,911
14,715
15,826
80,452
2.6
-1.3
0.9
1.5
October
52,290
13,907
15,470
81,667
4.8
-5.5
-2.2
1.5
November
52,888
15,257
16,190
84,335
1.1
9.7
4.7
3.3
December
48,673
14,311
15,996
78,980
-8.0
-6.2
-1.2
-6.3

Seasonally Adjusted

2003October
49,052
12,591
15,017
76,660
-6.8
0.2
-0.4
-4.5
November
48,163
13,140
14,924
76,227
-1.8
4.4
-0.6
-0.6
December
46,467
13,373
15,026
74,866
-3.5
1.8
0.7
-1.8
2004January
49,658
14,019
15,718
79,395
6.9
4.8
4.6
6.0
February
50,228
13,345
15,949
79,522
1.1
-4.8
1.5
0.2
March
49,180
13,464
16,316
78,960
-2.1
0.9
2.3
-0.7
April
48,228
13,289
15,888
77,405
-1.9
-1.3
-2.6
-2.0
May
48,045
14,491
16,076
78,612
-0.4
9.0
1.2
1.6
June
49,876
14,514
15,435
79,825
3.8
0.2
-4.0
1.5
July
47,271
14,643
15,964
77,878
-5.2
0.9
3.4
-2.4
August
48,299
14,983
15,793
79,075
2.2
2.3
-1.1
1.5
September
50,263
15,210
16,274
81,747
4.1
1.5
3.0
3.4
October
51,938
15,432
16,649
84,019
3.3
1.5
2.3
2.8
November
49,930
15,009
15,691
80,630
-3.9
-2.7
-5.8
-4.0
December
45,095
14,328
16,053
75,476
-9.7
-4.5
2.3
-6.4

Trend

2003October
50,229
12,863
14,990
78,082
-1.1
1.1
0.8
-0.4
November
49,620
13,058
15,145
77,823
-1.2
1.5
1.0
-0.3
December
49,099
13,254
15,358
77,711
-1.0
1.5
1.4
-0.1
2004January
48,816
13,413
15,606
77,835
-0.6
1.2
1.6
0.2
February
48,787
13,538
15,828
78,153
-0.1
0.9
1.4
0.4
March
48,844
13,665
15,957
78,466
0.1
0.9
0.8
0.4
April
48,777
13,834
15,975
78,586
-0.1
1.2
0.1
0.2
May
48,596
14,087
15,933
78,616
-0.4
1.8
-0.3
+0.0
June
48,607
14,427
15,899
78,933
+0.0
2.4
-0.2
0.4
July
48,900
14,756
15,917
79,573
0.6
2.3
0.1
0.8
August
49,303
14,976
15,990
80,269
0.8
1.5
0.5
0.9
September
49,510
15,063
16,070
80,643
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
49,425
15,065
16,122
80,612
-0.2
+0.0
0.3
-0.0
November
49,096
15,001
16,139
80,236
-0.7
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
December
48,559
14,917
16,156
79,632
-1.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.8

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
TAS.(a)
NT
ACT
Aust.
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)

Original

2003October
25533
21337
15521
5430
7487
2008
607
1302
79225
November
25099
20254
15058
5214
6925
1717
630
1215
76112
December
25113
21071
15265
5404
7161
1860
593
1319
77786
2004January
21216
16857
13403
4334
6249
1193
498
1047
64797
February
24955
19727
15901
5059
7113
1297
686
1139
75877
March
28118
22137
18611
5561
8086
1343
912
1278
86046
April
23033
19083
14831
4670
6529
1229
812
1118
71305
May
25649
20106
16373
5215
7296
1513
918
1209
78279
June
31438
23929
22026
6436
8969
1982
958
1474
97212
July
25031
19410
17141
4949
7228
1449
646
1181
77035
August
24795
20850
17269
5414
7513
1585
677
1141
79244
September
25241
20821
17188
5289
8177
1855
739
1142
80452
October
25621
22747
16079
5413
7875
1981
709
1242
81667
November
26619
23052
17117
5450
8157
1944
694
1302
84335
December
24315
21700
16537
4998
7341
2245
647
1197
78980
Seasonally Adjusted

2003October
24586
20197
15608
5324
7153
1937
620
1235
76660
November
24546
20329
15559
5260
7070
1593
648
1222
76227
December
24677
19838
14986
5175
7010
1263
646
1271
74866
2004January
26089
20966
16231
5398
7289
1539
660
1223
79395
February
26414
20771
16437
5196
7202
1536
750
1216
79522
March
25811
20476
16736
5177
7352
1425
776
1207
78960
April
25208
20445
16093
5153
7062
1481
766
1197
77405
May
25235
20386
16707
5203
7557
1550
771
1203
78612
June
25562
20358
17659
5243
7215
1853
727
1208
79825
July
25224
19476
17108
5025
7599
1561
683
1202
77878
August
24976
20643
17129
5298
7623
1541
727
1138
79075
September
25701
21093
17244
5405
8413
1880
806
1205
81747
October
25983
23059
17388
5628
7961
1990
762
1248
84019
November
25470
21550
16716
5208
8057
1710
709
1210
80630
December
23775
20343
16292
4766
6935
1508
700
1157
75476

Trend

2003October
25844
20714
15530
5313
7172
1605
635
1269
78082
November
25664
20622
15614
5303
7144
1573
646
1257
77823
December
25567
20560
15735
5277
7143
1520
666
1243
77711
2004January
25567
20543
15915
5249
7162
1477
694
1228
77835
February
25627
20536
16159
5225
7197
1467
723
1219
78153
March
25668
20495
16433
5200
7226
1487
745
1212
78466
April
25602
20371
16687
5173
7267
1525
758
1203
78586
May
25446
20234
16903
5164
7338
1573
762
1196
78616
June
25346
20246
17085
5196
7479
1629
760
1192
78933
July
25363
20463
17202
5253
7656
1686
757
1193
79573
August
25429
20813
17238
5300
7805
1734
754
1196
80269
September
25419
21154
17170
5314
7881
1755
752
1198
80643
October
25313
21405
17030
5289
7874
1757
745
1199
80612
November
25134
21537
16858
5231
7800
1742
735
1199
80236
December
24908
21574
16660
5157
7703
1707
726
1197
79632

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.

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