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8634.0 - Tourism Indicators, Australia, Sep 2001  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/02/2002   
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This article was published in Tourism Indicators, Australia, September 2001 (ABS Cat. No. 8634.0).

INTRODUCTION

The Retail trade, Accommodation, cafes and restaurants, and Transport, storage and communications industries together account for 59% of tourism value added according to the 1997-98 tourism satellite account. Tourism gross value added as a proportion of total gross value added was 11% for Retail trade, 36% for Accommodation, cafes and restaurants, and 13% for Transport, storage and communication services. The short term business expectations of each of these industries are in most instances better than 12 months ago according to the March quarter 2002 issue of Australian Business Expectations (Cat. no. 5250.0).

The estimates are based on the business expectations of senior executives, managers and proprietors of businesses operating in Australia, during October and November 2001 (i.e. after the terrorist attacks on the United States and the demise of Ansett). Approximately 1,200 tourism related businesses were included in the survey.


SHORT TERM OUTLOOK - MARCH QUARTER 2002

All industries


F2.1 Expected aggregate change over the previous quarter


Mar Qtr 2001 %
Jun Qtr 2001 %
Sep Qtr 2001 %
Dec Qtr 2001 %
Mar Qtr 2002 %

ORIGINAL
Operating income
-3.0
-0.2
-1.2
1.3
-3.0
Profit
-28.6
-5.5
-3.1
8.9
-26.3
Employment
(full time equivalent)
-1.3
-1.0
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8

TREND
Operating income
-0.8
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
Profit
-11.7
-9.4
-4.8
-4.1
-7.4
Employment
(full time equivalent)
-0.9
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
-0.9


Source: Australian Business Expectations, Mar and Dec 2002


In original terms, Operating income, Profit and Employment in industry as a whole are expected to decrease by 3.0%, 26.3% and 0.8% respectively in the March quarter 2002 compared to the December quarter 2001. In trend terms these key indicators are also showing decreases.

Of all businesses, those in Queensland are expecting the largest decreases in Operating income (-3.8%) and Profit (-38.9%). Employment in South Australia is expected to decrease by 1.7%, a larger expected fall than in other States. In contrast, businesses in Tasmania expect Operating income and Employment to grow by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and Profit to fall by a much smaller margin than the other States.

Major tourism related industries

Operating income

F2.2 Operating income expectations Mar 2002-Dec 2001



Businesses in the three major tourism related industries are expecting Operating income to decrease in the March quarter 2002. Businesses in the Transport, storage and communication industry are expecting the smallest decrease (1.9%). Businesses in the Retail industry are expecting the largest decrease (5.3%). The Operating income expectations of businesses in the Retail and Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industries are an improvement on the March quarter 2001.

Profit

The recent outlook has been pessimistic for businesses in the Retail and Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industries, apart from the December quarter 2001, when an increase in profit was expected. The March quarter 2002 data show that businesses in these industries are expecting profit to decrease by 64.4% and 26.6% respectively. In the previous year, these industries expected larger falls in profit for the March quarter 2001, with Retail expected to be down 74.0% and profit for the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry expected to decline 36.3%.

Businesses in the Transport, storage and communication industry expect Profit to decrease by 7.9% in the March quarter 2002. This is a smaller decrease than expected in the March quarter 2001 (18.8%).

F2.3 Profit expectations Mar 2002-Dec 2001



Employment

F2.4 Employment expectations Mar 2002-Dec 2001



Businesses in these industries are expecting full time equivalent employment to decrease in the March quarter 2002. Of all businesses, those in the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry are expecting the smallest decrease (0.1%). Businesses in the Transport, storage and communication industries are expecting the largest decrease (1.7%). This is the sixteenth consecutive quarter that businesses in this industry have expected a decrease.


MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK - DECEMBER QUARTER 2002

All industries

In original terms, Operating income and Profit are expected to increase by 1.5% and 8.1% respectively in the December quarter 2002. Employment is expected to decrease by 0.1%.


F2.5 Expected aggregate change over same quarter of the previous year


Dec Qtr 2001%
Mar Qtr 2002 %
Jun Qtr 2002 %
Sep Qtr 2001 %
Dec Qtr 2002 %

ORIGINAL
Operating income
1.5
1.7
0.4
0.9
1.5
Profit
-1.1
6.7
9.4
7.9
8.1
Employment
(full time equivalent)
-0.1
-0.4
-1.8
-0.7
-0.1

TREND
Operating income
1.6
1.3
0.9
0.9
1.2
Profit
4.8
5.3
6.6
8.6
10.7
Employment
(full time equivalent)
-0.3
-0.7
-1.0
-0.9
-0.6


Source: Australian Business Expectations, Mar and Dec 2002


Of all businesses, those in Western Australia are expecting the largest increase in Operating income (2.6%) and those in New South Wales are expecting the largest increase in Profit (22.9%). Employment in Victoria is expected to decrease by 1%, a larger expected fall than in other States. New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania are expecting Employment to grow in the December quarter 2002.

Major tourism related industries

Operating income

Operating income in the Retail industry is expected to grow by 1.4% while smaller increases are expected by businesses in the other tourism related industries.

F2.6 Operating income expectations Dec 2002-Dec 2001



Profit

Businesses in the Transport, storage and communication industry are expecting Profit to increase by 8.8% in the December quarter 2002. The medium term Profit expectation for the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry is the lowest expectation for that industry since the commencement of the series in September quarter 1994.

F2.7 Profit expectations Dec 2002-Dec 2001



Employment

Businesses in the Retail and Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industries are showing an increase in Employment in the December quarter 2002. Businesses in the Transport, storage and communication industry are expecting a 0.7% decrease.

F2.8 Employment expectations Dec 2002-Dec 2001



CONCLUSION

Businesses in tourism related industries are expecting falls in key business indicators in the short term but in most cases these results present an improved outlook compared to their expectations of 12 months ago. In the medium term these businesses expect Operating Income to increase but Profit to fall in both the Retail and Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industries. For the latter Profit expectations are the lowest since 1994.

For more information see Australian Business Expectations, March qtr 2002 & December qtr 2002 (Cat. no. 5250.0).


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