8502.0 - Retail Trade Quarterly Indicators, Australia, Sep 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/11/2008  First Issue
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ANALYSIS CURRENT PRICE TERMS


TOTAL RETAIL

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail series increased by 0.5% in the September quarter 2008. This follows increases of 0.5% in the June quarter and 0.8% in the March quarter 2008. The rate of trend growth has been slowing since the June quarter 2007.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail series increased by 0.8% in the September quarter 2008. This follows increases of 0.4% in the June quarter and 0.5% in the March quarter 2008. The rate of growth in each of these three quarters is lower than any quarterly growth throughout 2006 and 2007.

A range of factors influence the level of Retail turnover in any particular quarter but these factors cannot be separately quantified in this survey. Some of the factors likely to have influenced Retail turnover in the September quarter include reductions in personal tax rates from July, the 25 basis point reduction in the official cash rate effective 3 September 2008 and, more generally, the impact on consumer confidence of developments in global financial markets up to the end of September.


COMPLETELY ENUMERATED SECTOR ESTIMATES

The historical Retail turnover series was revised in the July 2008 issue of Retail Trade Trends, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0) to account for the level shift resulting from the introduction of changes to scope and methodology to the series. Historical estimates for the completely enumerated sector were revised to account for the scope change but not for the methodological change. The completely enumerated sector comprises 'large' businesses that are in the survey each month. This grouping is not fixed and can change over time, however it tends to remain relatively constant from month to month. Analysis of the quarterly series indicates that the methodological change resulted in a greater than normal change in the size of the completely enumerated sector between June and July 2008.

Based on the currently available monthly estimates, the completely enumerated sector, in original current price terms, increased by 2.8% between the June and September quarters 2008 (compared to total turnover which increased by 2.5%). The analysis indicates that if the estimates are adjusted for the methodological change, the completely enumerated sector, in original current price terms, increased by 3.8% between the June and September quarters 2008 (compared to total turnover which increased by 2.5%). This means the rate of growth for the sample sector for the September quarter 2008 is overstated. The analysis indicates that if the estimates are adjusted for the methodological change, the sample sector increased by 0.3% rather than 1.9%.

A break-in-series between the June and September quarters 2008 is footnoted in the two spreadsheets presenting estimates for the completely enumerated and sample sectors. The comparable monthly series will be revised with the October 2008 issue of Retail Trade Trends, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0).


INDUSTRY

In the September quarter 2008, all industries except Household good retailing and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services had an increase in the trend.

In trend terms:

  • Food retailing increased by 1.2% in the September quarter 2008 following three quarters of similar growth. The rate of growth in these quarters is lower than it has been since the March quarter 2005.
  • Department stores increased by 0.8% in the September quarter 2008 following three quarters of similar growth. The rate of growth decreased from 1.6% in June quarter 2007 to 0.6% in both the March and June quarters 2008 before increasing slightly.
  • Clothing and soft good retailing increased by 0.5% in the September quarter 2008. The rate of growth decreased from 2.0% in June quarter 2007 to 0.3% in the March quarter 2008 before increasing slightly in the last two quarters.
  • Household good retailing declined by 0.4% in the September quarter 2008, the second consecutive quarterly decline. The rate of growth in this industry has slowed each quarter since December quarter 2006.
  • Other retailing increased by 0.3% in the September quarter 2008. The rate of growth has decreased from 3.8% in the December quarter 2007.
  • In the September quarter 2008, Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services declined by 0.6%, the third consecutive decline by this amount.


STATE

All states, except New South Wales (-0.8%) and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.3%), had an increase in the trend estimate. New South Wales is in decline for the second consecutive quarter after no growth in the March quarter 2008. The rate of trend growth for the Australian Capital Territory has been slowing since the December quarter 2006.

The rate of trend growth for Victoria slowed from the September quarter 2007 to June quarter 2008 with 0.5% growth for each of the last two quarters. Retail turnover for Queensland has continued to grow in 2008 although at a slower rate than in 2007.

South Australia, from the December quarter 2007, and the Northern Territory, from the March quarter 2006, have grown by 2.1% or more in each quarter.

The rate of growth for both Western Australia and Tasmania has been increasing since December quarter 2007 with growth of 1.7% and 2.0%, respectively, in the September quarter 2008.