Australian Bureau of Statistics

Rate the ABS website
ABS Home > Statistics > By Release Date
ABS @ Facebook ABS @ Twitter ABS RSS ABS Email notification service
8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Sep 2012  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/11/2012   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

TECHNICAL NOTE REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

1 As original estimates become available each month, the estimates of the seasonal pattern and trend series are updated to include the most up to date information. This means that most seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when the next month's data become available. To assist readers of this publication in analysing retail trends, the 'what-if' chart presents the approximate effect that two possible future scenarios would have on the current and previous trend movement estimates of total retail turnover for Australia. Note that the 'what-if' graph gives an idea of possible trend revisions based on future seasonally adjusted estimates and does not account for revised seasonally adjusted estimates based on additional original data. ABS research shows that approximately 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end of the series is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when a new data point becomes available. For more information see the trend estimates section of the Explanatory Notes. The two future scenarios considered are based on the 25th and 75th percentiles of seasonally adjusted movements calculated from the historical series. The two scenarios are as follows:

      Scenario 1. Next month's seasonally adjusted estimate of retail turnover rises 0.91%.
      Scenario 2. Next month's seasonally adjusted estimate of retail turnover falls 0.07%.
Graph: Revisions to Trend Estimates, 'What If' Graph


Bookmark and Share. Opens in a new window

Commonwealth of Australia 2014

Unless otherwise noted, content on this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Australia Licence together with any terms, conditions and exclusions as set out in the website Copyright notice. For permission to do anything beyond the scope of this licence and copyright terms contact us.