TECHNICAL NOTE REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
1 As original estimates become available each month, the estimates of the seasonal pattern and trend series are updated to include the most up to date information. This means that most seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when the next month's data become available. To assist readers of this publication in analysing retail trends, the 'what-if' chart presents the approximate effect that two possible future scenarios would have on the current and previous trend movement estimates of total retail turnover for Australia. Note that the 'what-if' graph gives an idea of possible trend revisions based on future seasonally adjusted estimates and does not account for revised seasonally adjusted estimates based on additional original data. ABS research shows that approximately 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end of the series is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when a new data point becomes available. For more information see the trend estimates section of the Explanatory Notes. The two future scenarios considered are based on the 25th and 75th percentiles of seasonally adjusted movements calculated from the historical series. The two scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1. Next month's seasonally adjusted estimate of retail turnover rises 0.85%.
Scenario 2. Next month's seasonally adjusted estimate of retail turnover falls 0.08%.