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6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Jun 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/08/2012   
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ANALYSIS


PRELIMINARY:

June Quarter 2012 (0.5%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2012. The index fell 2.1% through the year to the June quarter 2012.

The positive movement in the June quarter 2012 was the result of rises in Sydney (+1.4%), Perth (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.5%), Darwin (+5.1%) and Brisbane (+0.1%). This was partially offset by falls in Melbourne (-0.4%), Canberra (-1.3%) and Hobart (-0.4%).

The preliminary estimate for Sydney (+1.4%) follows an increase in the March quarter 2012 (+0.8%) and falls in all but one of the preceding six quarters (-0.3%, -0.3%, -0.3%, +0.2%, -1.9% and -1.2% from the September quarter 2010 to the December quarter 2011 respectively). The increase in the June quarter 2012 for Sydney was driven by clusters with median prices below $1 000 000. The index fell 0.9% through the year to the June quarter 2012, the fifth consecutive through the year fall, but the smallest since the June quarter 2011 (-0.6%).

The preliminary estimate for Perth (+0.6%) follows rises in the preceding two quarters (+0.5% and +0.7% in the December quarter 2011 and the March quarter 2012 respectively). Price increases in clusters with median prices between $400 000 and $900 000 drove the upward movement, but were partially offset by falls in clusters at the top and bottom ends of the price range. The index for Perth rose 1.1% through the year to the June quarter 2012, and together with Darwin (+12.3%) were the only cities to rise through the year.

The preliminary estimate for Melbourne (-0.4%) follows falls in the preceding five quarters (-1.4%, -1.1%, -2.0%, -1.2% and -1.3% in the March to the December quarters 2011 and the March quarter 2012 respectively). Clusters with median prices at the top and bottom of the range of prices contributed to the June quarter 2012 fall, however there were offsetting rises in clusters with median prices between $350 000 and $700 000. The index for Melbourne fell 4.8% through the year to the June quarter 2012, a smaller through the year decrease than the preceding two quarters (-5.6% and -5.5% in the December quarter 2011 and the March quarter 2012 respectively).


REVISED:

March Quarter 2012 (-0.1%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.1% in the March quarter 2012. This was revised from a preliminary estimated fall of 1.1%. The through the year movement has been revised from an estimated fall of 4.5% to an estimated fall of 3.5%.

The negative movement in the March quarter 2012 was the result of falls in Melbourne (-1.3%, revised from -2.2%), Adelaide (-1.2%, revised from -0.9%), Hobart (-2.0%, revised from -2.7%) and Brisbane (-0.1%, revised from +0.4%). This was partially offset by rises in Sydney (+0.8%, revised from -1.8%), Perth (+0.7%, revised from +1.1%), Darwin (+4.4%, unchanged) and Canberra (+0.3%, revised from +1.2%).

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Sydney (from -1.8% to +0.8%) was the main contributor to the revision to the weighted average of the eight capital cities. Clusters in Sydney with median prices between $350 000 and $800 000 contributed most to the rise in the March quarter 2012. Sydney fell 2.1% through the year to the March quarter 2012, revised from a fall of 4.6%.


FINAL:

December Quarter 2011 (-0.6%)

The final price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.6% in the December quarter 2011. This was revised from a second preliminary estimated fall of 0.7%. The movement through the year to the December quarter 2011 was revised from a fall of 4.5% to a fall of 4.4%.

The negative movement in the December quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Sydney (-1.2%, unchanged) and Melbourne (-1.2%, revised from -1.4%). This was partially offset by rises in Perth (+0.5%, revised from +0.9%), Canberra (+2.1%, revised from +2.0%), Hobart (+1.5%, revised from +1.7%), Brisbane (+0.1%, revised from -0.3%) and Darwin (+1.7%, revised from +1.6%). Adelaide showed no movement for the quarter (revised from -0.1%).


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