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6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Mar 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/05/2012   
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ANALYSIS


PRELIMINARY:

March Quarter 2012 (-1.1%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.1% in the March quarter 2012. The index fell 4.5% through the year to the March quarter 2012.

The negative movement in the March quarter 2012 was the result of falls in Melbourne (-2.2%), Sydney (-1.8%), Adelaide (-0.9%) and Hobart (-2.7%). This was partially offset by rises in Perth (+1.1%), Brisbane (+0.4%), Canberra (+1.2%) and Darwin (+4.4%).

The preliminary estimate for Melbourne (-2.2%) follows falls in the preceding four quarters (-1.4%, -1.1%, -2.0% and -1.4% in the March, June, September and December quarters 2011 respectively). Clusters across the range of median price levels contributed to the March quarter 2012 fall, however there were offsetting rises in some clusters at the lower end of the price range. The index fell 6.6% through the year to the March quarter 2012, one of the largest annual falls published for Melbourne (a larger through the year fall of 6.7% was published for the first preliminary and second estimates of March quarter 2009, however it was subsequently revised to a fall of 5.1%).

The preliminary estimate for Perth (+1.1%) follows a smaller rise in the previous quarter (+0.9%, revised from +0.5%). Prior to that, the last rise was in the March quarter 2010. Clusters at the lower end of the range of median price levels contributed most to the March quarter 2012 rise. The movement for Perth through the year to the March quarter 2012 (-1.7%) continues the trend of decreasing through the year falls since the June quarter 2011 (-6.6%).

The preliminary estimate for Brisbane (+0.4%) was the first rise in the index since the June quarter 2010. Across the price range in the March quarter 2012, median prices in some clusters rose while others fell. Most of the positive contributions to the Brisbane quarterly rise were concentrated in clusters with median prices below $500 000. Brisbane fell 3.7% through the year to the March quarter 2012, the fifth consecutive through the year fall, but smaller than the falls recorded for the previous three quarters.


REVISED:

December Quarter 2011 (-0.7%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.7% in the December quarter 2011. This was revised from a preliminary estimated fall of 1.0%. The through the year movement has been revised from an estimated fall of 4.8% to an estimated fall of 4.5%.

The negative movement in the December quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Melbourne (-1.4%, revised from -1.6%), Sydney (-1.2%, revised from -1.0%), Brisbane (-0.3%, revised from -1.3%) and Adelaide (-0.1%, revised from -1.6%). This was partially offset by rises in Perth (+0.9%, revised from +0.5%), Canberra (+2.0%, revised from +0.7%), Hobart (+1.7%, revised from +0.8%) and Darwin (+1.6%, revised from -1.4%).

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Adelaide (from -1.6% to -0.1%) was the main contributor to the revision to the weighted average of the eight capital cities. Clusters in Adelaide with median prices between $350 000 and $600 000 contributed the most to the fall in the December quarter 2011 with partially offsetting rises in some of the clusters with higher and lower median prices. Adelaide fell 4.5% through the year to the December quarter 2011, revised from a fall of 6.4%.

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Brisbane (from -1.3% to -0.3%) also contributed to the revision to the weighted average of the eight capital cities. The movement through the year to the December quarter 2011 was revised from a fall of 6.7% to a fall of 5.9%.


FINAL:

September Quarter 2011 (-1.9%)

The final price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.9% in the September quarter 2011. There was no revision from the second preliminary estimate published last quarter. Through the year to the September quarter 2011 the index fell 3.4%, also with no revision from the second preliminary estimate.

The movement in the September quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Sydney (-1.9%, revised from -1.6%), Melbourne (-2.0%, revised from -2.1%), Brisbane (-2.8%, unchanged), Canberra (-3.7%, revised from -3.1%), Perth (-0.6%, revised from -1.4%), Adelaide (-0.7%, revised from -1.1%) and Hobart (-2.3%, revised from -0.7%). These falls were partially offset by a rise in Darwin (+0.7%, unchanged).

The revision to the second estimate for Sydney (from -1.6% to -1.9%) was almost completely offset by the revision to Perth (from -1.4% to -0.6%). Smaller offsetting revisions to the other cities contributed to the unrevised quarterly movement of the weighted average of the eight capital cities second estimate.


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