6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/02/2012   
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ANALYSIS


PRELIMINARY:

December Quarter 2011 (-1.0%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.0% in the December quarter 2011. The index fell 4.8% through the year to the December quarter 2011.

The negative movement in the December quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Melbourne (-1.6%), Sydney (-1.0%), Brisbane (-1.3%), Adelaide (-1.6%), and Darwin (-1.4%). This was partially offset by rises in Perth (0.5%), Canberra (0.7%), and Hobart (0.8%).

The preliminary estimate for Melbourne (-1.6%) follows falls in the March, June, and September quarters 2011 (-1.4% -1.1% and -2.1% respectively). Most clusters across the range of median price levels contributed to the December quarter 2011 fall.

The preliminary estimate for Perth (+0.5%) was the first rise in that city since the March quarter 2010. The index fell 4.9% through the year to the December quarter 2011, a lower annual fall than the previous two quarters (-6.6% and -5.4% in the June and September quarters respectively). Although most clusters featured in the turnaround in the December quarter 2011, those with median prices less than $650 000 contributed the most.


REVISED:

September Quarter 2011 (-1.9%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.9% in the September quarter 2011. This was revised from a preliminary estimated fall of 1.2%. The through the year movement has been revised from an estimated fall of 2.2% to an estimated fall of 3.4%.

The negative movement in the September quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Melbourne (-2.1%, revised from -1.7%), Sydney (-1.6%, revised from -0.2%), Brisbane (-2.8%, revised from -2.5%), Perth (-1.4%, revised from -1.3%), Adelaide (-1.1%, revised from -0.9%), Canberra (-3.1%, revised from -2.0%) and Hobart (-0.7%, revised from -1.0%). The preliminary result for Darwin (+0.7%, revised from -0.4%) was the only rise in the September quarter 2011.

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Sydney (from -0.2% to -1.6%) was the main contributor to the revision to the weighted average of the eight capital cities. Sydney fell 2.0% through the year to the September quarter 2011, revised from a fall of 0.3%. Clusters in Sydney with median prices between $700 000 and $2 200 000 contributed the most to the fall in the September quarter 2011 and offset rises in some of the clusters with lower median prices.


FINAL:

June Quarter 2011 (-1.0%)

The final price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.0%. This was revised from a second preliminary estimated fall of 0.5%. The movement in the index through the year to the June quarter 2011 was revised from an estimated fall of 2.2% to a fall of 2.7%.

The movement in the June quarter 2011 was the result of falls in Perth (-3.0%, revised from -1.9%), Melbourne (-1.1%, revised from -0.5%), Adelaide (-2.2%, revised from -1.3%), Brisbane (-0.9%, unchanged), Hobart (-3.4%, revised from -1.9%), Darwin (-3.2%, revised from -3.0%) and Canberra (-0.1%, revised from -0.7%). These falls were partially offset by a rise in Sydney (+0.2%, revised from +0.3%).

The revision to the second estimate for Melbourne (from -0.5% to -1.1%) was the main contributor to the revision to the weighted average of the eight capital cities second estimate, followed by the revision to Perth (-1.9% to -3.0%).