MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE



CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis uses original, not seasonally adjusted, estimates.

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+1.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group for the September quarter 2014 was fruit (+14.7%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in bread (-3.0%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 3.5%. The main contributors to the rise were fruit (+19.2%), vegetables (+10.0%), restaurant meals (+2.2%) and takeaway and fast foods (+1.9%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in breakfast cereals (-6.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.9% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was fruit (+9.3%).


HOUSING (+0.5%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group for the September quarter 2014 were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%) and property rates and charges (+6.3%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in electricity (-5.1%), which fell mainly due to the removal of the carbon price from 1 July 2014.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the housing group rose 2.3%. The main contributors to the rise were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+3.8%), rents (+2.5%) and property rates and charges (+6.3%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in electricity (-4.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group fell 0.4% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was electricity (-8.1%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group for the September quarter 2014 was tobacco (+2.3%), mainly due to the effects of the federal excise tax increase from 1 September 2014.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 7.3%. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+15.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.2% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+2.4%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the recreation and culture group for the September quarter 2014 was international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%). The rise was partially offset by falls in pets and related products (-1.8%) and games, toys and hobbies (-1.3%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the recreation and culture group rose 1.9%. The main contributor to the rise was international holiday travel and accommodation (+5.1%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (July for travel in September) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (August for travel in September).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.7% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was international holiday travel and accommodation (-3.5%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group for the September quarter 2014 was telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the communication group fell 1.8%. The main contributor to the fall was telecommunication equipment and services (-2.1%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-1.0%)

The main contributors to the fall in the clothing and footwear group for the September quarter 2014 were garments for men (-3.7%) and garments for women (-0.4%). This was partially offset by accessories (+0.4%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the clothing and footwear group fell 2.7%. The main contributors to the fall were garments for men (-3.7%) and garments for women (-2.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 2.0% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was garments for men (-5.5%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the insurance and financial services group for the September quarter 2014 were insurance (+0.7%) and other financial services (+0.5%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.2%. The main contributor to this rise was other financial services (+1.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was other financial services (+0.5%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.4%)

The main contributor to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group for the September quarter 2014 was child care (+3.1%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.4%. The main contributor to the rise was child care (+7.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.2% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was household textiles (-4.5%).


HEALTH GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group for the September quarter 2014 was pharmaceutical products (-1.4%), which fell mainly due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS) safety net. The fall was partially offset by a rise in dental services (+0.9%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the health group rose 4.7%. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+6.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.5% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+1.9%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (-0.1%)

There was a fall for the transport group for the September quarter 2014 mainly due to a decrease in automotive fuel (-2.5%). The fall was partially offset by a rise in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+5.8%).

Automotive fuel fell in September (-1.7%) and August (-4.0%), was flat in July (0.0%), rose in June (+3.9%) and fell in May (-5.5%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the transport group rose 0.2%. The main contributor to the rise was other services in respect of motor vehicles (+7.7%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in automotive fuel (-2.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was other services in respect of motor vehicles (+4.6%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+0.1%)

The education group recorded a movement of 0.1% in the September quarter 2014.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the education group rose 5.2%. The main contributor to the rise was secondary education (+6.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.3% in the September quarter 2014. The main contributors to the rise were secondary education (+1.6%) and tertiary education (+1.1%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 0.3% in the September quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.3% rise in tradable goods component were fruit and tobacco. The most significant offsetting fall in the tradable goods component was automotive fuel. The rise in the tradables services component of 1.3% was driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% in the September quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradable goods component fell 0.1% mainly due to electricity. The most significant offsetting rise was for new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers. The non-tradable services component rose 0.8% mainly due to increases in property rates and charges, other services in respect of motor vehicles and rents. The most significant offsetting fall was for telecommunication equipment and services.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the tradables component rose 2.0% and the non-tradables component rose 2.4%. This compares to a rise of 2.9% and a rise of 3.1% respectively through the year to the June quarter 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component was flat (0.0%) in the September quarter 2014 and the non-tradables component rose 0.2%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

In the September quarter 2014, the All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.1%, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.5%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.8% in the June quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the trimmed mean rose 2.5%, compared to a revised rise of 2.8% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014.

The weighted median rose 0.6% in the September quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the June quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014, the weighted median rose 2.6% compared to a revised rise of 2.6% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014.

		Original	Seasonally adjusted
		Jun Qtr 2014 to Sep Qtr 2014	Jun Qtr 2014 to Sep Qtr 2014
All groups CPI		0.5	0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages		1.2	0.9
Alcohol and tobacco		1.1	1.2
Clothing and footwear		-1.0	-2.0
Housing		0.5	-0.4
Furnishings, household equipment and services		0.4	-0.2
Health		-0.2	1.5
Transport		-0.1	0.4
Communication(a)		-1.4	-1.4
Recreation and culture		0.6	-0.7
Education		0.1	1.3
Insurance and financial services		0.6	0.4
International trade exposure series
	Tradables	0.3	0.0
	Non-tradables	0.5	0.2
(a) not seasonally adjusted.

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. This paper includes a description of the seasonal adjustment methodology used to calculate the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of underlying inflation.

Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.