6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Jun 2015 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/07/2015   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



TRANSPORT GROUP (+3.4%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+12.2%).

Automotive fuel rose in February (+5.1%), March (+10.3%), April (+0.2%), May (+3.5%) and June (+2.7%). The increase in fuel is registered in four of the five fuel types with the quarterly rise the largest since December 1990, following on from a significant fall last quarter (-12.2%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Diagram: TRANSPORT GROUP (+3.4%)

Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 2.4%. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-10.6%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+6.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 3.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+11.6%).


HOUSING (+0.7%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.5%) and rents (+0.4%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in electricity (-0.6%) driven by Adelaide.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 2.5%. The main contributors to the rise are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+4.8%) and rents (+1.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.5%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributors to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-5.4%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.3%). The fall in domestic holiday travel and accommodation is typical of the off peak season for domestic holiday travel. The fall is partially offset by rises in audio, visual and computing equipment (+1.3%) and equipment for sports, camping and open-air recreation (+1.3%).

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.9%. The main contributor to the rise is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (e.g. April for travel in June) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (e.g. May for travel in June).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-1.2%).


HEALTH GROUP (+2.7%)

The main contributor to the rise in the health group this quarter is medical and hospital services (+4.5%).

The rise is due to increases in private health insurance premiums from 1 April, as well as the annual indexation of the Private Health Insurance rebate effective from 1 April. The rise is partially offset by a fall in pharmaceutical products (-1.8%), mainly due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) safety net.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 4.3%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+6.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+2.0%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+2.5%). Increases to tobacco prices are partially due to the flow on effects of the biannual indexation on 1 March based on the ABS Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE) rate.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 4.8%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+10.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+3.5%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+1.0%)

The main contributor to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is furniture (+3.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 1.4%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+8.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is major household appliances (+2.6%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+1.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is garments for men (+3.6%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in footwear for women (-3.0%).

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.9%. The main contributors to the fall are garments for women (-2.3%) and footwear for women (-2.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is footwear for women (-1.8%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributors to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are vegetables (-1.7%) and other food products n.e.c. (-3.8%). The fall is partially offset by rises in fish and other seafood (+2.8%) and beef and veal (+2.0%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.3%. The main contributors to the rise are restaurant meals (+2.1%) and take away and fast foods (+1.7%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in bread (-7.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is meals out and take away foods sub-group (+0.3%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-0.6%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-0.7%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in postal services (+0.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 3.4%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-3.7%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is other financial services (+0.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.1%. The main contributors to the rise are other financial services (+2.2%) and insurance (+2.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is other financial services (+0.5%).


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no change this quarter.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 5.4%. The main contributors to the rise are tertiary education (+5.7%) and secondary education (+4.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+1.3%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 1.2% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributor to the 1.4% rise in tradable goods component is automotive fuel. The most significant offsetting falls in the tradable goods component are pharmaceutical products and vegetables. The fall in the tradable services component of 1.3% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.6% mainly due to new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers. The most significant offsetting fall is electricity. The non-tradable services component rose 0.3% mainly due to increases in medical and hospital services. The most significant offsetting fall is domestic holiday travel and accommodation.

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component fell 0.3%, while the non-tradables component rose 2.6%. This compares to a fall of 0.9% and a rise of 2.6% respectively through the year to the previous quarter. There is some evidence of the depreciation in the Australian dollar is putting upward pressure on some prices.

In seasonally adjusted terms the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 1.1% this quarter and the non-tradables component rose 0.6%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no. 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.8% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.7%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.6% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.7% last quarter. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 2.2%, compared to a rise of 2.3% over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

The weighted median rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.8% last quarter. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 2.4% compared to a revised rise of 2.5% over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Mar Qtr 2015 to Jun Qtr 2015
Mar Qtr 2015 to Jun Qtr 2015
%
%

All groups CPI
0.7
0.8
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
-0.2
0.1
Alcohol and tobacco
1.2
1.6
Clothing and footwear
1.3
-0.2
Housing
0.7
1.1
Furnishings, household equipment and services
1.0
0.3
Health
2.7
1.5
Transport
3.4
3.2
Communication(a)
-0.6
-0.6
Recreation and culture
-1.4
-0.2
Education
0.0
1.3
Insurance and financial services
0.3
0.5
International trade exposure series
Tradables
1.2
1.1
Non-tradables
0.5
0.6

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.