WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised. This revision is a combined result of the concurrent seasonal adjustment process and the application of surrogates of the Henderson average to the seasonally adjusted series (see paragraphs 24 to 32 of the Explanatory Notes).
The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The revisions in the scenarios below are only due to the use of surrogates of the Henderson average, as the impact of revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates can not be estimated in advance.
1 The February seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the January estimate by:
0.26% for employment
1.80% for the unemployment rate
2 The February seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the January estimate by:
0.26% for employment
1.80% for the unemployment rate
The percentage changes of 0.26% and 1.80% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.
Employment
|  |
| | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: |
| | |
|
| | Trend as
published | (1) 10 361.6 i.e.
rises by 0.26% | (2) 10 307.9 i.e.
falls by 0.26% |
|
| 2006 | | | |
| October | 10 284.0 | 10 284.1 | 10 285.0 |
| November | 10 300.0 | 10 300.5 | 10 298.0 |
| December | 10 315.3 | 10 318.4 | 10 310.5 |
| 2007 | | | |
| January | 10 327.9 | 10 335.8 | 10 320.8 |
|
|
Unemployment Rate
| |
| | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: |
| | |
|
| | Trend as
published | (1) 4.6 i.e. rises
by 1.80% | (2) 4.5 i.e. falls
by 1.80% |
|
| 2006 | | | |
| October | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| November | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| December | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | | | |
| January | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
|
|
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