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6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jul 2013 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/08/2013   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised. This revision is a combined result of the concurrent seasonal adjustment process and the application of surrogates of the Henderson average to the seasonally adjusted series (see paragraphs 28 to 36 of the Explanatory Notes).

The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The revisions in the scenarios are due to the use of surrogates of the Henderson average, as the impact of revision of seasonally adjusted estimates can not be estimated in advance.

1 The August seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the July estimate by:
0.24% for employment
2.20% for the unemployment rate

2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the July estimate by:
0.24% for employment
2.20% for the unemployment rate

The percentage changes of 0.24% and 2.20% represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively. Estimates in the graphs have been calculated using unrounded estimates, and may be different from, but more accurate than, rounded estimates depicted in the corresponding table.

Employment

Graph: What if Employed Persons


WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
Trend as published
(1) 11 681.2 i.e. rises by 0.24%
(2) 11 625.3 i.e. falls by 0.24%

2013
April
11 647.5
11 647.6
11 648.5
May
11 654.1
11 654.2
11 651.7
June
11 659.0
11 660.2
11 651.9
July
11 660.0
11 665.4
11 649.8



Unemployment Rate

Graph: What if Unemployment Rate


WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
Trend as published
(1) 5.8 i.e. rises by 2.20%
(2) 5.6 i.e. falls by 2.20%

2013
April
5.6
5.6
5.6
May
5.6
5.6
5.6
June
5.7
5.7
5.7
July
5.7
5.7
5.7




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