LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY NOVEMBER 2016


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

TREND ESTIMATES

Australia's trend estimate of employment increased by 3,100 persons in November 2016, with:

• the number of unemployed persons decreasing by 700;
• the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.6 per cent;
• the participation rate remaining steady at 64.5 per cent; and
• the employment to population ratio remaining steady at 60.9 per cent.

Over the past 12 months, trend employment increased by 87,300 (or 0.7 per cent), which is less than half the size of the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (1.8 per cent). Over the same 12 month period the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population over 15 years is, decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9 per cent.

In monthly terms, the trend employment increase of 3,100 persons between October and November 2016 represents an increase of 0.03 per cent, remaining below the monthly average growth rate over the past 20 years of 0.15 per cent.

Trend full-time employment decreased by 100 persons in November, continuing the decline seen throughout 2016. Since December 2015, full-time employment has fallen by 56,900 persons. In comparison, part-time employment has increased by 125,100 persons over the same period, with its share of employment increasing from 31.1 per cent to 32.0 per cent.

The trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 0.8 million hours in November 2016, to 1,665.4 million hours, with a decrease across full-time workers (51,700 hours) and an increase across part-time workers (891,900 hours).

The trend unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.6 per cent in November 2016. Over the past year, the unemployment rate has decreased by 0.3 percentage points, with unemployment decreasing by 31,300 persons.

The quarterly underemployment rate was also unchanged in November 2016, remaining at 8.5 per cent. Over the past year the underemployment rate has been relatively unchanged, with underemployment increasing by 24,000 persons.

Graph 1, Underemployment and Unemployment Rate, November 2006 to November 2016

The trend participation rate remained at 64.5 per cent in November 2016. Over the past year, the labour force, which includes both employed and unemployed persons, increased by 55,900 persons. This was below the 284,000 increase in the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over, with the participation rate decreasing 0.6 percentage points, down from 65.1 per cent.

The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (though not entirely) for the effects of an ageing population in the older age groups, declined marginally to 76.7 per cent. It also decreased over the year to November 2016, down 0.4 percentage points, from 77.2 per cent. Over the year, the 15-64 year old labour force increased by 53,500, while the Civilian Population increased by 164,900.

The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 39,100 persons from October to November 2016. Full-time employment increased by 39,300 persons, while part-time employment decreased by 200 persons. Since December 2015, seasonally adjusted full-time employment has decreased by 45,800 persons, while part-time employment has increased by 126,500 persons.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 10.4 million hours in November 2016, to 1,663.3 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.0 per cent in November 2016.

Graph 2. Employment to population ratio, Persons, November 2006 to November 2016

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points in November 2016 to 5.7 per cent, and the labour force participation rate increased, by 0.2 percentage points, to 64.6 per cent.

The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the quarter, to 8.3 per cent.


STATE AND TERRITORY ESTIMATES

TREND ESTIMATES

The largest increase in trend employment in November 2016 was in Victoria (up 5,000 persons). The largest decreases were in New South Wales (down 1,900) and Queensland (down 700).

In percentage terms, Victoria, South Australia and Northern Territory had the strongest employment growth (0.2 per cent). The decrease in employment in New South Wales equates to around a 0.1 per cent decrease.

The trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points in Queensland, while in Western Australia and Australian Capital Territory the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points.

The largest trend participation rate increases were in Northern Territory (up 0.2 percentage points), Western Australia and South Australia (up 0.1 percentage points). The largest decreases were in New South Wales and Queensland (down 0.1 percentage points).

The trend underemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter in South Australia, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory, while it increased in Tasmania (up 0.5 percentage points), New South Wales and Victoria (up 0.1 percentage points).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

In seasonally adjusted terms, increases in employment were seen in all the states in November 2016. The largest employment increase was in Queensland (up 38,600 persons), after three consecutive decreases (a cumulative decrease of 40,500 persons).

The largest increases in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate were in South Australia (up 0.5 percentage points), Western Australia (up 0.3 percentage points), Victoria and Queensland (up 0.2 percentage points).

The largest increase in the seasonally adjusted participation rates was in Queensland (up 1.1 percentage points, after a cumulative decrease of 1.5 percentage points over the previous three months). Other large increases were observed in Western Australia (up 0.6 percentage points), Tasmania (up 0.5 percentage points) and South Australia (up 0.3 percentage points).

The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate decreased over the quarter in South Australia (down 0.8 percentage point), Western Australia and Victoria (down 0.4 percentage points), and Queensland (down 0.2 percentage points), while in New South Wales and Tasmania the underemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points.

Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the two territories.

Table 1, Unemployment rate, States and Territories
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	October	November	October	November
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9
Victoria	5.8	5.8	5.7	6.0
Queensland	6.0	5.9	5.8	6.0
South Australia	6.7	6.7	6.5	7.0
Western Australia	6.5	6.7	6.5	6.9
Tasmania	6.5	6.5	6.3	6.4
Northern Territory	3.7	3.7	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	3.6	3.7	np	np
Australia	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.7
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated