6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/07/2016   
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LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JUNE 2016


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

TREND ESTIMATES

Australia's trend estimate of employment increased by 8,300 persons in June 2016, with:

  • the number of unemployed persons decreasing by 200;
  • the unemployment rate steady at 5.7 per cent;
  • the participation rate unchanged at 64.8 per cent; and
  • the employment to population ratio steady at 61.1 per cent.

Over the past 12 months, trend employment increased by 212,000 (or 1.8%), which was in line with the average percentage year-on-year growth over the last 20 years. Over the past 12 months, the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population is, increased from 60.9 to 61.1 per cent.

The trend employment increase of 8,300 persons between May and June 2016 represents a monthly growth rate of 0.07%, which is below the monthly average over the past 20 years of 0.15%. While trend employment growth was above the 20 year average from December 2014 to December 2015, the rate of growth in employment for the past six months has been below this average.

Trend part-time employment growth continued into June 2016, with an increase of 7,600 persons. Full-time employment increased by 700 persons, after four consecutive decreases.

Trend monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 0.7 million hours (0.04%) in June 2016 to 1,635.1 million hours. This was the sixth consecutive decrease in monthly hours worked in all jobs, which reflects a cumulative decrease of 11.1 million hours (0.7%) from the series peak at December 2015.

The trend unemployment rate remained unchanged between May 2016 and June 2016 at 5.7 per cent. During the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has decreased 0.4 percentage points from 6.1 per cent in June 2015.

The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2016 was 5.8 per cent (up 0.1 percentage points) and the labour force participation rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points, remaining unchanged at 64.9 per cent.

Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 7,900, with a male full-time employment increase of 27,300 and a female full-time employment increase of 11,100. The full-time employment increases were partially offset by a decrease in male part-time employment of 28,000 and female part-time employment of 2,600.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 4.3 million hours (0.3%) in June 2016 to 1,640.0 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio remained steady at 61.1% in June 2016.

Employment to population ratio, Persons, June 2006 to June 2016
Graph: Employment to population ratio, Persons, June 2006 to June 2016



STATE ESTIMATES

Trend employment in June 2016 was strongest in Victoria (up 8,700 persons) and New South Wales (up 7,300 persons). The largest decrease was in Queensland (down 4,900 persons).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increases in employment in June 2016 were in Victoria (up 24,200 persons) and South Australia (up 4,600 persons). The States with the largest decrease in seasonally adjusted employment were New South Wales (down 11,900 persons), Western Australia (down 10,300 persons) and Queensland (down 1,400 persons).

The only increase in the trend unemployment rate was in Queensland (up 0.1 percentage points). There were decreases in Northern Territory (down 0.2 percentage point) and Australia Capital Territory (down 0.1 percentage points) and it was relatively unchanged in the other states.

There were decreases in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Victoria and Western Australia (both down 0.1 percentage points). There were increases in Tasmania, South Australia (up 0.2 percentage points) and New South Wales (up 0.1 percentage points). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in Queensland but by less than 0.1 percentage points.

The trend participation rate increased in Northern Territory (up 0.2 percentage points), New South Wales and Victoria (both up 0.1 percentage points). The largest decreases were in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania (all down 0.1 percentage points).

The largest increases in the seasonally adjusted participation rate were in South Australia (up 0.5 percentage points) and Victoria (up 0.3 percentage points). There were decreases in the seasonally adjusted participation rates in Western Australia (down 0.6 percentage points), New South Wales (down 0.2 percentage points) and Queensland (down 0.1 percentage points) and was relatively unchanged in Tasmania.

Unemployment rate, States and Territories

May 2016 and June 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
May
June
May
June
%
%
%
%

New South Wales
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.3
Victoria
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.7
Queensland
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.5
South Australia
6.9
6.9
6.8
7.0
Western Australia
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
Tasmania
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
Northern Territory
3.9
3.7
np
np
Australian Capital Territory
3.7
3.6
np
np
Australia
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.8

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated