LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JULY 2014
NATIONAL ESTIMATES
Australia's unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 6.4% in July 2014 (seasonally adjusted). The increased unemployment rate resulted from increased participation with the number of persons in the labour force increasing by 43,400 persons, and the number of employed persons decreasing by 300. The net result was the number of unemployed persons increased by 43,700 to 789,000 in July 2014 (seasonally adjusted).
In trend terms the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 6.1% in July 2014, following a revision to the June 2014 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in July 2014 increased by 9,500 to 756,700. Trend estimates reduce the impact of the irregular component of the seasonally adjusted series and can provide a better a better basis for analysing the underlying behaviour of the series.
In original terms (where the seasonal and irregular influences have not been removed) the number of employed persons decreased by 11,900 persons between June and July 2014 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 19,300. The seasonally adjusted increase in unemployment was stronger than the increase in original terms, reflecting that historically there is usually a decrease in unemployed persons in July in original terms. The incoming rotation group for July 2014 had a lower proportion of employed persons and a higher proportion of unemployed persons compared to the sample it replaced. Therefore the incoming rotation group contributed more persons to the labour force and to the increased unemployment rate. The incoming rotation group contributed about one-third of the absolute change in the number of persons unemployed and 40% of the absolute change in male unemployment.
July 2014 saw the seasonally adjusted participation rate increase by 0.1 percentage points to 64.8%. The trend participation rate was unchanged at 64.7% in July 2014.
The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons decreased by 300 in July 2014 to 11,576,600 persons. In trend terms, employment increased by 4,600 persons to 11,582,200 persons in July 2014. The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.7% (seasonally adjusted). The trend employment to population ratio remained steady at 60.8%, following a revision to the June 2014 estimate.
Employment to population ratio, Persons, February 2013 to July 2014
Seasonally adjusted part-time employment decreased by 14,800 persons to 3,499,200 persons while full-time employment increased by 14,500 persons in July 2014 to 8,077,400 persons. The decrease in total employment resulted from:
- a decrease in male part-time employment, down 21,500 persons
- a decrease in female full-time employment, down 5,100 persons
- an increase in female part-time employment, up 6,700 persons
- an increase in male full-time employment, up 19,600 persons.
Seasonally adjusted aggregate monthly hours worked decreased by 14.8 million hours (0.9%) in July 2014 to 1,610.7 million hours.
STATE ESTIMATES
The largest absolute increases in seasonally adjusted unemployment were in Victoria (up 14,500 persons), Queensland (up 12,100 persons) and New South Wales (up 8,100 persons). The largest absolute decrease in seasonally adjusted unemployment was in South Australia (down 1,300 persons).
The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in Queensland (down 12,600 persons), South Australia (down 4,200 persons) and New South Wales (down 4,200 persons). The largest absolute increase in seasonally adjusted employment was in Victoria (up 14,600 persons).
Victoria had the largest increase in the seasonally adjusted participation rate (up 0.5 percentage points) and South Australia the largest decrease (down 0.4 percentage points).
Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories.
Unemployment rate, State and Territories, June 2014 and July 2014 |
|
 | Trend | Seasonally Adjusted |
| June | July | June | July |
| % | % | % | % |
|
| New South Wales | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 |
| Victoria | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| Queensland | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.8 |
| South Australia | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
| Western Australia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Tasmania | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| Northern Territory | 4.5 | 4.8 | np | np |
| Australian Capital Territory | 3.8 | 3.9 | np | np |
| Australia | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
|
| np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated |
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