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LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY February 2019


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

TREND ESTIMATES

Australia's trend employment estimate increased by 20,600 persons in February 2019, with:

• the number of unemployed persons increasing by 1,800 persons;
• the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.0%;
• the underemployment rate decreasing less than 0.1 percentage points (pts) to 8.1%;
• the underutilisation rate decreasing less than 0.1 pts to 13.1%;
• the participation rate remaining steady at 65.6%; and
• the employment to population ratio remaining steady at 62.4%.

In February, trend full-time employment increased by 12,300 persons and part-time employment increased by 8,200 persons. Compared to a year ago, there are 219,100 more persons employed full-time and 71,600 more persons employed part-time. This compositional shift led to a decrease in the part-time share of employment over the past 12 months, from 31.7% to 31.5%.

The trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 2.6 million hours (or 0.1%) in February 2019 to 1,767.0 million hours. Monthly hours worked increased by 1.9% over the past year, which was below the 2.3% increase in employed persons. The average hours worked per employed person was 138.5 hours per month or around 31.9 hours per week.

The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% in February 2019 (the January 2019 trend unemployment rate was revised down this month from 5.1% to 5.0%). The number of unemployed persons increased by 1,800 to 673,100 persons. Over the past year, the trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.5 pts, with the number of unemployed decreasing by 53,200 persons.

The trend underemployment rate decreased less than 0.1 pts to 8.1% over the month. Over the past year this rate decreased by 0.4 pts, from 8.5% in February 2018. The underutilisation rate, which is a combined measure of unemployment and underemployment in the labour force, decreased less than 0.1 pts to 13.1% in February 2019, down 0.9 pts from 14.0% in February 2018.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6% in February 2019 (January 2019 was revised down to 65.6%). The female participation rate remained steady at 60.6% and the male participation rate remained steady at 70.8%.

The labour force includes the total number of employed and unemployed persons. Over the past year, the trend labour force increased by 237,500 persons (1.8%). This rate of increase matched the rate of increase for the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over (357,000 persons, or 1.8%).

The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (in part) for the effects of an ageing population, remained steady at 78.1%. The gap between male and female participation rates in this age range is less than 10 pts, at 82.7% and 73.5% respectively, continuing the long term convergence of male and female participation.

The trend participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) increased by 0.1 pts to 68.0%. The unemployment rate for this group decreased 0.1 pts to 11.2% in February 2019 and decreased by 1.1 pts over the year.

The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 4,600 persons from January 2018 to February 2019. The underlying composition of the net change was a decrease of 7,300 persons in full-time employment and an increase of 11,900 persons in part-time employment. Since February 2018, full-time employment increased by 210,000 persons, while part-time employment increased by 74,000 persons.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 3.1 million hours (or 0.2%) in February to 1,769.9 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio decreased by 0.1 pts to 62.3% in February 2019, and increased by 0.3 pts from the same time last year.

GRAPH 1. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO, PERSONS, February 2009 to February 2019

The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased in Western Australia (down 0.6 pts to 67.8%), Queensland (down 0.4 pts to 65.0%) and South Australia (down 0.2 pts to 62.4%). Victoria saw a slight increase (up 0.1 pts to 66.1%). The participation rate remained steady for the other states.

Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the two territories.

	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	January 2019	February 2019	January 2019	February 2019
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	4.2	4.2	3.9	4.3
Victoria	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.8
Queensland	5.8	5.7	6.1	5.4
South Australia	5.9	5.9	6.3	5.7
Western Australia	6.2	6.2	6.9	5.9
Tasmania	6.2	6.3	7.0	6.5
Northern Territory	4.9	4.9	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	3.5	3.5	np	np
Australia	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.9